***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2018.-20.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 21.4 24.3 22.1 0.6 57.6 55.2 21.8 23.5 25.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 24.7 24.5 21.9 0.4 55.7 55.0 22.3 24.0 25.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 21.9 24.8 22.4 0.7 58.6 56.1 22.3 24.0 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 14.4 17.3 19.8 0.6 57.6 54.3 14.9 16.6 18.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 22.2 24.9 20.4 0.6 57.9 55.0 22.4 24.1 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 23.3 23.2 18.1 0.5 56.3 53.4 21.1 22.6 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 24.4 24.1 21.8 0.3 54.5 54.1 22.0 23.6 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 10.2 12.7 18.7 0.6 57.2 54.3 10.5 12.0 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 24.3 24.5 20.8 0.7 59.1 56.0 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 21.6 24.2 19.5 0.7 58.5 55.5 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 21.9 24.6 20.1 0.6 57.8 54.8 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 23.4 23.5 19.7 0.6 57.9 54.6 21.2 22.8 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 24.6 24.6 19.0 0.6 57.6 54.3 22.4 23.9 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 25.8 24.5 20.5 0.6 56.9 55.3 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 22.5 25.0 20.7 0.6 58.7 55.1 22.8 24.3 25.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 25.1 25.1 19.7 0.6 57.6 54.5 22.7 24.3 25.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 24.0 23.7 21.6 0.3 53.5 53.7 21.7 23.3 24.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 23.7 23.8 19.1 0.7 58.4 55.6 21.3 23.0 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 24.2 24.2 22.2 0.6 58.0 56.4 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 18.8 18.8 16.5 0.6 57.6 54.6 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 21.8 24.5 21.7 0.6 58.0 55.2 22.1 23.8 25.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 24.5 24.2 21.6 0.4 54.8 54.5 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 25.8 24.9 22.4 0.8 60.8 58.0 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 21.2 24.0 20.6 0.7 58.3 55.8 21.5 23.2 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 21.7 24.5 20.5 0.6 57.5 54.5 22.1 23.8 25.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 23.8 24.1 19.0 0.9 61.3 56.7 21.7 23.2 24.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 21.7 24.4 21.3 0.5 57.3 54.8 22.1 23.7 25.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 22.1 24.8 20.1 0.6 57.5 54.4 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 16.0 18.7 18.1 0.7 57.8 55.1 16.3 18.0 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 21.8 24.4 22.0 0.5 56.7 55.3 22.1 23.8 25.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------