***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2012.-29.04.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 3.2 7.9 68.0 44.6 39.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 2.9 3.9 5.8 56.6 37.6 33.8 3.1 6.1 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 5.2 6.7 7.3 64.5 41.8 38.4 5.0 8.5 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.0 7.9 10.1 62.5 41.7 36.7 5.9 10.0 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 4.2 5.4 9.7 59.7 39.1 35.2 4.3 7.7 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.8 4.6 10.7 56.4 36.2 32.1 4.0 7.5 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 3.1 4.1 6.3 59.7 39.6 34.7 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 7.5 8.4 8.8 48.7 29.1 27.5 9.4 14.7 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 4.4 5.3 8.6 57.4 37.7 34.6 4.5 8.0 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 4.6 5.2 9.5 54.1 35.0 32.5 4.8 8.9 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.8 5.1 8.9 57.5 38.9 34.5 4.1 7.4 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 3.1 3.7 7.8 50.5 32.1 28.9 3.9 7.3 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 3.8 3.9 10.0 55.4 33.2 30.4 3.9 7.3 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.9 7.8 9.3 63.9 40.5 37.6 6.1 10.3 15.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.9 5.4 9.8 65.5 42.4 37.4 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 4.1 5.1 9.5 55.8 35.4 31.6 4.7 8.2 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 3.4 4.7 5.5 56.7 37.3 31.7 4.0 7.2 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.6 6.3 10.6 57.5 35.9 33.9 5.6 9.8 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 3.7 4.4 6.0 57.3 37.5 34.2 3.7 6.9 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 4.0 3.5 9.4 46.2 24.1 23.9 5.1 8.8 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.5 5.4 8.0 61.3 40.2 36.8 4.3 7.1 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 3.0 3.6 5.7 56.7 36.1 30.8 3.2 6.0 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.9 4.5 7.1 63.0 40.6 37.4 3.4 6.2 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.6 6.7 9.8 63.8 41.3 38.2 4.9 8.9 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.1 7.5 11.7 75.0 46.9 42.4 4.4 8.3 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 3.0 3.7 9.4 53.7 33.2 29.9 3.6 6.7 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.3 7.5 10.1 72.4 46.3 41.6 4.5 8.6 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.4 4.4 9.5 59.8 39.9 35.2 3.2 6.5 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 6.9 7.3 10.0 53.9 31.9 30.3 7.7 13.3 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 3.5 4.8 6.4 60.3 40.0 36.2 3.7 6.7 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------