***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-19.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 36.6 55.1 91.6 50.7 45.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 24.4 34.8 54.4 90.5 50.1 45.7 24.5 34.6 46.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 33.6 45.0 53.2 89.6 49.1 44.2 34.4 45.8 58.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 43.7 59.7 64.1 95.4 53.2 49.1 44.4 56.9 71.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 34.8 47.4 63.3 95.3 53.1 48.8 35.1 45.4 56.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 54.4 50.4 82.7 95.2 51.3 49.0 39.5 49.5 60.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 25.6 38.4 56.5 93.2 52.4 47.8 26.2 36.7 49.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 89.5 87.4 71.9 98.1 54.8 51.1 69.3 83.4 97.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 50.3 47.5 62.4 95.8 53.8 48.9 35.2 45.1 56.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 59.4 56.1 71.4 96.3 53.4 49.2 41.8 53.4 66.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 48.2 45.7 60.7 96.5 54.2 49.5 34.1 43.4 53.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 50.4 50.5 61.8 99.9 56.8 52.4 38.4 46.8 55.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 46.1 45.1 73.0 98.6 55.1 51.4 34.1 42.5 51.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 64.7 57.0 67.8 93.1 50.3 45.9 42.7 57.0 72.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 25.8 39.0 59.9 96.2 54.3 49.4 26.7 36.3 47.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 48.4 46.7 65.9 97.3 54.3 50.2 36.1 44.6 53.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 27.1 40.4 53.9 92.1 52.0 47.5 27.2 39.1 52.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 63.5 60.7 80.3 97.2 53.6 49.9 44.3 57.7 72.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 34.5 45.4 52.7 88.7 48.5 44.0 35.0 46.5 59.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 57.0 56.2 91.8 99.5 55.3 52.5 39.8 52.1 65.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 31.2 41.9 55.7 93.4 52.2 46.9 31.7 40.6 50.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 29.0 39.0 51.7 88.5 48.3 44.0 29.0 40.2 52.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 29.9 39.4 53.3 88.1 47.8 43.0 29.9 40.9 53.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 60.3 54.7 67.6 93.8 51.3 46.8 40.7 53.6 67.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 52.5 47.8 66.4 93.8 51.3 47.1 36.2 46.8 58.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 45.2 46.5 69.7 103.3 59.3 55.2 31.8 41.0 50.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 35.9 47.9 64.5 93.7 51.7 47.1 36.2 46.8 58.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 44.8 41.8 61.7 95.5 53.5 49.1 30.1 39.6 50.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 77.2 75.5 83.6 98.9 54.9 51.4 57.6 71.3 86.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 25.6 37.2 54.4 90.0 49.6 45.2 25.9 37.4 51.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------