***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 11.0 11.4 0.3 56.1 54.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 10.8 11.1 11.3 0.5 60.9 57.7 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 12.4 12.6 11.2 0.5 60.7 57.4 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 7.5 7.0 9.0 0.0 49.3 49.6 5.9 7.0 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.8 9.0 0.1 52.3 51.6 7.7 8.7 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 6.5 7.6 7.1 0.0 50.7 50.2 6.7 7.6 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 10.8 10.9 11.3 0.5 59.3 56.7 9.4 10.4 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 2.9 2.8 7.3 0.2 55.4 53.7 1.5 2.5 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.9 9.8 9.5 0.2 55.3 53.7 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 9.8 9.8 8.0 0.3 56.6 54.7 8.6 9.5 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.4 8.5 0.1 53.3 52.4 8.3 9.2 10.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.7 7.9 0.1 52.5 51.6 6.8 7.6 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 7.8 8.7 7.3 -0.1 48.6 48.9 7.9 8.8 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 10.4 10.6 9.6 0.5 61.0 57.8 9.3 10.1 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 11.0 10.6 9.5 -0.1 48.4 48.9 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 10.3 9.9 8.0 0.0 50.3 50.3 8.8 9.8 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 11.0 11.2 11.1 0.5 59.6 56.9 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 8.0 8.2 7.4 0.4 59.3 56.8 7.0 7.7 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 10.6 11.0 11.3 0.6 62.0 58.5 9.4 10.3 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.7 5.6 0.3 55.7 53.8 3.7 4.4 5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 9.9 9.8 10.5 0.3 55.9 54.1 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.2 10.5 11.1 0.5 61.0 58.0 9.1 9.9 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 10.3 10.6 11.0 0.6 62.7 59.0 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 10.0 10.2 9.4 0.5 61.3 58.1 8.9 9.7 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.1 9.8 0.1 51.6 51.1 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.3 7.3 -0.2 45.2 46.0 7.6 8.5 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.0 10.8 10.6 0.2 53.9 52.8 9.3 10.5 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.5 9.2 0.0 49.4 49.7 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 7.3 7.5 6.8 0.4 59.6 57.0 5.8 6.9 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 10.8 11.0 11.4 0.5 60.5 57.4 9.4 10.4 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------