***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 21.8 24.1 21.9 0.6 57.5 54.9 22.2 23.5 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 22.1 24.2 21.7 0.4 55.5 53.1 22.4 23.8 25.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 22.1 24.4 22.1 0.6 57.2 54.8 22.4 23.8 25.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 14.6 16.6 19.2 0.2 53.3 52.6 15.0 16.4 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 22.1 24.0 19.8 0.1 51.9 51.7 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 20.8 22.3 17.2 -0.1 48.5 49.0 21.2 22.4 23.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 21.6 23.7 21.7 0.4 55.0 52.8 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 10.0 11.6 17.9 -0.1 49.2 49.8 10.4 11.7 12.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 21.5 23.5 20.1 0.3 53.6 52.9 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 21.4 23.2 18.8 0.1 51.9 51.7 21.7 23.0 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 21.6 23.4 19.5 0.0 50.4 50.7 22.1 23.4 24.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 21.1 22.5 19.0 -0.1 48.4 49.3 21.4 22.6 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 22.1 23.4 18.1 -0.3 46.7 48.0 22.4 23.6 24.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 22.0 24.0 19.9 0.3 53.9 52.6 22.3 23.6 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 21.9 24.2 20.3 0.4 55.9 54.4 22.4 23.7 25.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 22.5 24.1 18.9 0.0 49.5 49.9 22.8 24.2 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 21.2 23.4 21.5 0.5 55.9 53.3 21.5 22.9 24.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 21.1 22.8 18.3 0.1 51.6 51.5 21.5 22.7 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 23.9 23.8 21.9 0.5 56.0 53.5 22.0 23.3 24.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 16.1 17.7 15.5 -0.1 48.9 49.4 16.5 17.8 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 21.7 23.8 21.1 0.4 54.8 53.7 22.1 23.5 24.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 24.2 24.2 21.5 0.6 57.2 54.2 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 24.2 24.2 21.9 0.5 56.3 53.9 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 21.5 23.4 20.0 0.3 54.3 53.1 21.8 23.1 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 21.8 23.9 19.9 0.4 55.1 53.7 22.2 23.5 24.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 21.4 22.8 18.1 -0.2 47.1 47.8 21.7 23.0 24.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 21.7 23.8 21.0 0.5 56.5 54.2 22.0 23.3 24.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 21.9 24.0 19.5 0.3 53.8 52.8 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 16.0 17.7 17.2 0.0 49.4 49.9 16.4 17.8 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 21.9 24.0 21.8 0.5 56.1 53.6 22.2 23.5 24.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------