***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.05.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 23.9 23.4 21.3 0.0 50.0 49.8 22.1 23.4 24.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 24.1 23.5 21.2 0.0 50.0 50.1 22.2 23.6 24.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 24.1 23.6 21.4 -0.1 49.4 49.2 22.3 23.6 24.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 16.7 16.0 18.8 -0.2 47.3 47.1 14.9 16.2 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 24.2 23.4 19.4 -0.2 47.5 47.4 22.3 23.6 24.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 22.7 22.0 17.0 -0.2 48.2 47.6 20.9 22.2 23.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 23.5 23.0 21.1 -0.1 49.4 49.7 21.8 23.0 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 11.9 11.4 17.8 -0.1 48.9 48.2 10.3 11.5 12.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 23.5 22.9 19.7 -0.1 48.7 48.4 21.7 23.0 24.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 23.2 22.7 18.5 -0.1 49.4 48.9 21.5 22.8 23.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 23.5 22.8 19.1 -0.3 46.8 46.8 21.8 23.1 24.3 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 22.8 22.2 18.8 -0.3 46.9 46.7 21.2 22.4 23.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 23.7 23.1 17.9 -0.3 46.5 46.4 22.1 23.3 24.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 24.0 23.5 19.5 0.1 50.6 50.1 22.1 23.5 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 24.0 23.2 19.6 -0.3 46.4 46.3 22.1 23.4 24.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 24.4 23.6 18.6 -0.3 46.5 46.4 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 23.1 22.9 21.2 0.2 52.5 52.3 21.3 22.7 23.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 22.9 22.5 18.1 0.1 50.8 50.0 21.2 22.5 23.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 23.6 23.0 21.3 0.0 49.5 49.6 21.8 23.1 24.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 18.1 17.7 15.5 0.1 51.3 50.2 16.4 17.7 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 23.7 23.2 20.7 0.0 49.7 49.3 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 23.8 23.6 21.1 0.3 53.2 52.5 22.0 23.3 24.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 24.0 23.4 21.2 -0.1 48.7 48.7 22.2 23.5 24.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 23.4 22.9 19.5 0.0 50.0 49.5 21.7 22.9 24.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 23.7 23.2 19.5 0.0 49.7 49.3 22.0 23.2 24.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 23.1 22.4 17.9 -0.4 45.9 45.7 21.5 22.7 23.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 23.6 23.1 20.5 0.0 50.2 49.9 21.9 23.1 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 24.0 23.2 19.0 -0.3 46.7 46.5 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.0 17.6 17.1 0.1 51.2 50.3 16.3 17.6 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 23.8 23.2 21.2 -0.1 49.1 49.3 22.0 23.3 24.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------