***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.04.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9.5 8.9 9.5 -0.3 40.3 41.0 8.6 9.2 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 8.0 8.3 9.1 -0.5 35.3 37.4 8.2 8.9 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 11.0 10.3 9.7 -0.3 40.9 42.1 10.0 10.7 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 5.7 5.4 7.1 -0.1 47.0 46.9 4.8 5.5 6.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 7.6 7.4 7.7 -0.1 48.0 48.0 6.9 7.4 7.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 6.5 6.7 5.8 0.6 65.2 62.4 5.9 6.3 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 8.2 8.5 9.2 -0.4 37.5 39.1 8.3 9.0 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 1.4 1.5 5.6 0.2 57.4 55.7 0.6 1.2 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 8.4 8.1 7.8 -0.1 46.4 46.9 7.7 8.2 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 8.3 8.3 6.5 0.1 52.4 51.9 7.7 8.2 8.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 7.9 7.9 7.3 0.1 54.5 53.5 7.4 7.8 8.2 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 6.4 6.6 6.5 0.3 59.6 57.5 5.9 6.3 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 7.6 7.7 6.3 0.3 59.5 57.5 7.0 7.5 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.5 7.6 -0.3 41.5 42.8 8.2 8.8 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 9.2 9.1 8.6 0.1 53.3 52.6 8.5 9.0 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 8.8 9.0 6.9 0.3 59.0 57.3 8.1 8.7 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 8.4 8.6 8.8 -0.6 32.7 35.3 8.6 9.2 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 6.4 6.4 6.0 0.1 52.7 52.1 5.8 6.3 6.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 8.2 8.4 9.1 -0.5 35.9 37.9 8.3 8.9 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 3.3 3.4 4.0 0.3 58.4 56.7 2.7 3.2 3.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 8.4 8.0 9.1 -0.2 43.7 44.4 7.6 8.2 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 7.6 7.8 8.8 -0.6 33.2 35.7 7.8 8.4 9.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.8 8.2 9.0 -0.4 38.0 39.8 8.0 8.6 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 8.4 8.0 7.7 -0.2 44.9 45.7 7.7 8.2 8.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.8 8.3 8.4 -0.3 40.5 41.3 8.0 8.6 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 7.4 7.7 5.9 0.6 66.9 63.7 6.9 7.3 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 9.4 8.7 9.1 -0.3 41.3 41.9 8.4 9.1 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 7.2 7.2 7.7 0.2 54.2 53.3 6.7 7.1 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 5.8 5.7 5.3 0.1 52.8 52.2 4.9 5.6 6.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.4 8.6 9.3 -0.4 37.7 39.3 8.4 9.1 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------