***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.05.2017.-14.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 4.0 10.1 15.1 91.0 58.5 46.2 3.5 7.5 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.4 6.7 12.2 79.4 53.8 42.5 3.1 5.9 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.2 9.5 14.7 88.5 57.4 45.3 4.0 7.5 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.7 14.7 17.6 97.5 61.5 49.4 5.4 10.2 16.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 4.1 11.9 17.5 98.1 61.2 47.6 4.2 8.2 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 5.1 10.6 18.1 84.6 53.6 45.1 5.3 9.6 15.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.3 6.9 12.2 80.5 54.6 42.8 3.2 5.9 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 18.8 18.3 19.1 92.2 57.7 48.0 10.0 15.5 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 4.4 12.1 18.4 100.4 62.2 47.7 4.4 8.2 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 6.0 13.8 20.5 95.8 59.4 47.6 5.7 10.4 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 5.1 10.1 15.7 89.3 57.7 45.7 5.2 8.4 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.3 16.1 87.6 56.3 46.4 4.5 7.8 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 2.7 6.0 17.1 82.1 53.3 43.6 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 11.2 9.8 19.6 85.6 55.6 44.0 4.2 8.2 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 3.9 9.7 14.8 87.7 58.6 46.0 4.0 7.4 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 4.0 7.9 15.8 84.8 55.3 44.1 4.3 6.9 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.9 9.1 13.0 85.2 56.6 42.4 3.8 7.3 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.8 15.3 22.4 97.7 60.0 48.3 6.3 11.4 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 5.0 10.3 12.6 78.9 53.2 41.9 4.9 9.3 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.2 11.9 22.9 97.2 59.3 48.6 4.9 9.0 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.3 12.1 17.2 101.8 63.1 48.8 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 4.0 8.1 13.7 83.2 54.9 41.5 4.2 7.2 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.9 9.1 13.9 83.7 54.8 42.9 4.8 8.0 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 6.5 14.0 19.0 93.2 58.6 46.2 6.0 10.9 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 5.5 13.2 17.9 97.7 61.3 48.7 5.0 9.3 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 2.5 5.5 15.7 81.6 53.1 42.8 2.4 5.0 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 5.2 12.3 15.9 91.3 58.5 46.4 4.6 9.2 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 4.1 10.3 16.3 91.1 58.9 46.9 4.2 7.8 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.9 17.7 22.5 98.0 60.0 48.4 7.4 13.1 21.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.6 7.6 12.8 82.4 55.0 44.0 3.1 6.4 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------