***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.05.2017.-14.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 21.0 23.0 20.9 0.0 49.5 48.8 21.5 23.0 24.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 20.8 23.2 21.0 0.2 52.6 50.4 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 21.1 23.1 21.1 0.0 49.7 49.0 21.6 23.1 24.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 14.3 15.9 18.8 0.0 49.6 48.9 14.6 15.9 17.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 21.5 23.2 19.3 -0.1 48.7 48.5 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 20.2 21.7 17.2 0.0 49.6 48.6 20.4 21.8 23.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 20.4 22.7 21.0 0.2 52.7 50.2 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 9.4 10.9 17.7 0.0 49.5 48.9 9.6 11.0 12.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 20.7 22.4 19.6 -0.1 48.7 48.5 21.1 22.5 23.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 20.7 22.3 18.4 -0.1 49.1 48.8 21.1 22.4 23.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 20.9 22.7 19.1 0.1 50.8 50.0 21.3 22.7 24.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 20.4 22.1 18.7 0.1 51.5 50.5 20.7 22.0 23.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 21.3 22.9 18.0 0.1 50.8 50.0 21.5 22.9 24.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 21.2 22.7 19.2 -0.2 47.0 47.4 21.5 22.9 24.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 21.7 23.6 19.9 0.4 55.4 52.3 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 21.7 23.6 18.7 0.1 51.4 50.3 22.1 23.5 24.8 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 20.1 22.3 20.8 0.2 52.3 49.8 20.7 22.1 23.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 20.5 21.9 17.9 -0.1 48.4 48.4 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 20.5 22.7 21.0 0.1 51.9 50.2 21.1 22.5 23.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.8 17.1 15.4 -0.2 47.9 47.9 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 21.0 22.6 20.4 -0.2 47.4 47.5 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 20.7 22.8 20.5 0.0 49.6 48.3 21.3 22.8 24.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 21.1 23.0 20.9 0.0 50.7 49.7 21.5 22.9 24.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 20.8 22.2 19.3 -0.2 47.9 47.9 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 21.0 22.6 19.2 -0.2 47.5 47.5 21.5 22.8 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 20.7 23.0 18.3 0.7 59.0 55.0 20.9 22.3 23.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 20.7 22.5 20.1 -0.1 48.7 48.1 21.2 22.6 23.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 21.6 23.3 19.2 0.1 51.9 50.3 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.7 17.0 17.0 -0.2 47.9 48.1 15.8 17.1 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 20.6 22.9 21.0 0.1 51.9 50.2 21.2 22.7 24.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------