***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 24.5 26.1 22.7 2.8 83.1 74.6 20.8 22.4 24.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 24.6 26.5 23.0 3.3 87.2 77.4 20.8 22.4 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 24.5 25.8 22.9 2.8 82.1 73.5 20.9 22.5 24.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 16.9 17.6 19.9 2.3 76.7 69.3 13.9 15.3 16.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 24.4 24.7 20.3 1.9 72.5 66.6 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 22.6 22.7 17.9 1.6 68.9 62.8 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 24.1 26.1 23.0 3.4 87.7 78.0 20.5 22.0 23.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 11.8 11.8 18.4 1.7 68.7 63.4 8.6 10.1 11.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 23.8 24.1 20.7 2.0 73.2 67.2 20.4 22.0 23.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 23.6 23.6 19.3 1.8 70.4 65.0 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 23.7 24.0 20.1 2.0 72.3 66.2 20.5 22.0 23.4 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 22.8 23.1 19.6 2.0 72.3 65.6 19.7 21.2 22.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 23.8 24.1 18.9 1.9 71.9 65.2 20.6 22.1 23.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 24.1 24.2 20.3 1.8 70.4 65.2 20.8 22.3 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 24.2 25.3 21.0 2.6 81.2 71.9 21.2 22.5 23.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 24.4 24.9 19.7 2.1 73.8 66.8 21.2 22.7 24.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 23.7 25.7 22.8 3.4 87.7 77.9 20.1 21.6 23.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 23.1 23.0 18.8 1.7 68.5 63.8 19.9 21.4 22.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 24.0 25.7 22.9 3.1 85.3 75.7 20.4 21.9 23.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 18.1 17.7 15.9 1.3 64.4 60.5 15.0 16.5 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 24.0 24.6 21.7 2.2 75.3 68.9 20.7 22.2 23.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 24.3 25.7 22.3 2.9 83.4 74.4 20.7 22.2 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 24.3 25.4 22.7 2.8 81.7 73.0 20.8 22.3 23.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 23.7 23.8 20.4 2.0 72.0 66.4 20.4 21.9 23.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 24.0 24.8 20.5 2.3 77.7 70.7 20.8 22.3 23.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 23.1 23.7 19.0 2.2 75.6 67.1 20.0 21.4 22.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 23.9 25.0 21.7 2.6 81.2 73.2 20.6 22.1 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 24.1 24.9 20.3 2.3 77.3 69.2 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 18.0 17.7 17.6 1.4 65.6 61.7 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 24.2 26.0 22.9 3.2 86.4 76.8 20.6 22.1 23.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------