***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 11.5 11.9 11.7 1.4 75.2 67.1 9.3 10.3 11.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 11.7 12.4 11.6 1.7 79.3 70.5 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 13.2 13.7 11.7 1.4 76.5 67.9 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 7.4 8.3 8.6 0.9 68.5 62.5 5.9 7.0 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.1 9.6 8.6 0.7 65.0 59.8 7.7 8.7 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.9 8.5 6.6 0.8 66.9 60.4 6.7 7.6 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 11.6 12.4 11.8 1.8 80.8 71.6 9.4 10.4 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 1.2 3.1 6.2 0.5 61.1 57.3 1.5 2.5 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.9 10.4 8.8 0.7 66.0 60.2 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 8.4 10.1 7.1 0.6 62.5 58.2 8.6 9.5 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.6 10.0 7.8 0.6 64.4 59.3 8.3 9.2 10.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 6.7 8.2 7.0 0.6 64.4 58.8 6.8 7.6 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 7.8 9.4 6.6 0.6 62.4 57.2 7.9 8.8 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 10.5 10.8 8.7 0.7 65.3 60.3 9.3 10.1 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 11.5 11.7 9.9 1.1 71.9 64.3 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.8 7.4 0.7 65.1 59.5 8.8 9.8 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 11.8 12.3 11.5 1.7 79.5 70.8 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.8 8.2 6.3 0.5 61.2 57.7 7.0 7.7 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 11.4 11.9 11.5 1.5 78.0 69.4 9.4 10.3 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 3.5 4.6 4.0 0.2 54.4 53.6 3.7 4.4 5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.9 10.6 10.4 1.0 69.1 62.6 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 10.9 11.4 11.1 1.5 77.0 68.9 9.1 9.9 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 11.0 11.3 11.1 1.3 75.6 67.5 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 10.6 10.5 8.5 0.8 66.8 61.4 8.9 9.7 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 10.4 11.1 9.9 1.0 68.5 62.3 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 7.5 9.2 6.3 0.6 63.2 57.1 7.6 8.5 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 11.8 12.1 10.9 1.3 72.6 65.2 9.3 10.5 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.8 9.4 8.9 1.0 69.3 62.8 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 5.6 7.4 5.6 0.4 58.9 56.6 5.8 6.9 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 11.6 12.3 11.8 1.6 79.3 70.4 9.4 10.4 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------