***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 10.3 11.0 10.3 1.2 69.2 62.7 8.8 9.8 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 10.8 11.0 10.2 1.4 73.5 65.1 8.1 9.3 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 12.5 12.5 10.3 1.1 70.3 64.0 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.8 7.3 0.7 63.2 59.5 4.8 5.9 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 6.5 8.3 7.2 0.5 59.4 57.4 6.7 7.7 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.7 7.1 5.4 0.8 63.5 60.3 5.5 6.4 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 10.6 10.9 10.3 1.4 74.4 65.7 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 2.8 2.1 5.0 0.4 58.6 57.4 0.6 1.6 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 9.6 9.1 7.5 0.6 61.3 58.7 7.6 8.5 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 9.6 9.1 5.9 0.5 59.9 58.1 7.7 8.5 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 9.1 8.5 6.5 0.5 59.6 57.9 7.2 8.0 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 7.5 7.0 5.8 0.6 60.6 58.4 5.6 6.4 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 6.4 7.9 5.4 0.5 59.5 57.2 6.6 7.4 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 8.1 9.7 7.5 0.6 61.3 58.4 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.6 10.1 8.6 0.9 66.6 61.4 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 10.0 9.5 6.1 0.6 60.9 58.4 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 10.8 10.9 10.0 1.3 73.0 64.5 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 7.3 6.8 5.3 0.6 60.9 59.2 5.3 6.3 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 10.6 10.7 10.1 1.3 72.7 64.9 8.3 9.3 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 2.4 3.7 3.0 0.4 56.7 56.9 2.6 3.4 4.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 9.6 9.3 9.1 0.8 63.8 60.0 7.5 8.5 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 9.9 9.9 9.6 1.1 71.1 63.8 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 10.1 10.1 9.8 1.1 70.9 64.2 8.0 8.9 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 9.4 9.2 7.4 0.7 63.7 60.4 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.5 10.0 8.6 0.8 64.0 59.5 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 8.3 7.9 5.2 0.7 61.7 58.3 6.5 7.4 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 10.3 11.2 9.6 1.1 67.7 61.7 8.1 9.6 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.9 7.6 0.8 64.2 60.1 6.4 7.2 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 7.2 6.6 4.6 0.5 59.0 58.2 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 10.9 11.1 10.3 1.3 73.2 65.2 8.3 9.5 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------