***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 16.2 14.9 114.0 68.0 54.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.8 14.7 16.1 120.5 70.0 57.2 4.4 8.2 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.1 14.5 14.7 112.1 67.5 54.9 4.8 8.6 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 16.6 22.0 18.7 112.0 67.8 52.2 6.4 12.5 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.6 16.7 17.6 111.0 67.6 52.2 4.9 9.5 15.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 15.3 16.4 20.2 97.7 61.8 49.7 5.6 11.1 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.3 15.8 16.4 122.7 70.7 57.6 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 23.5 27.2 17.6 100.5 63.8 50.1 10.5 18.4 28.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.9 16.9 16.7 110.9 67.4 52.1 5.5 10.1 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.6 16.0 17.7 102.1 64.3 50.2 5.8 10.5 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.2 15.2 16.2 107.2 66.4 50.4 5.4 9.5 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 14.6 17.6 15.6 102.2 65.3 50.2 7.2 11.9 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.5 12.3 17.9 99.4 63.7 50.5 5.1 8.5 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.3 20.3 18.2 108.3 66.5 55.1 7.1 12.6 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 5.2 15.7 17.8 113.4 68.5 51.3 4.6 8.8 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.4 14.2 17.2 104.6 65.6 50.7 4.7 8.7 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 6.5 19.4 16.1 118.1 69.2 56.6 5.8 10.8 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.9 16.8 19.0 99.2 63.2 50.9 6.6 11.5 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 8.7 23.1 15.5 117.0 69.0 56.6 8.3 14.0 21.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.2 15.8 21.7 99.4 62.8 51.9 7.4 11.7 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 13.1 18.1 15.3 114.6 68.6 53.8 5.7 10.4 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.8 14.5 15.5 111.7 67.3 55.6 5.8 9.4 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 13.4 17.6 15.2 113.7 68.3 56.4 6.1 10.6 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 16.3 19.6 17.0 104.2 65.1 52.7 6.6 12.3 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 6.6 18.3 18.6 110.6 66.5 52.2 6.0 11.0 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.3 12.6 16.1 96.4 62.9 50.0 5.0 8.8 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 6.9 17.8 17.4 110.5 66.5 52.6 6.5 11.3 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.0 16.6 18.0 110.6 67.6 51.2 5.5 9.9 15.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.1 21.5 19.4 99.3 63.2 51.5 8.8 15.1 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 12.5 18.0 15.7 119.6 69.8 57.0 4.4 9.1 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------