***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 4.7 7.7 10.9 70.4 42.9 33.8 5.4 9.6 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 4.4 6.9 10.3 74.7 46.1 36.6 5.0 7.5 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 6.2 10.3 11.2 75.0 45.3 35.9 7.2 11.6 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 8.7 12.6 12.6 67.3 38.7 31.9 10.8 16.4 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 6.5 8.8 11.9 67.2 38.1 32.3 7.5 12.5 19.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 7.6 11.5 14.1 79.3 47.0 39.2 8.0 12.3 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 3.5 5.6 9.4 67.5 41.2 33.3 4.2 7.6 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 14.0 20.4 14.1 79.2 47.2 39.7 14.9 21.7 29.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 6.9 9.7 12.3 73.3 43.1 36.1 6.9 11.9 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 7.4 11.3 14.1 77.1 44.8 38.1 7.9 12.9 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 6.0 10.1 12.5 77.0 45.8 38.1 6.3 11.7 19.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 8.0 12.2 12.2 77.7 47.7 39.6 8.5 12.8 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 7.8 12.1 13.0 74.2 44.6 38.3 8.8 13.9 20.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 8.3 14.4 15.4 90.3 54.4 43.8 8.0 12.9 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 3.8 5.7 11.5 63.9 35.7 28.9 5.1 9.5 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 5.5 9.1 12.2 71.6 41.9 36.0 6.4 11.8 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.9 6.6 9.9 75.4 48.0 39.3 3.8 7.2 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 7.5 11.8 15.6 80.4 46.7 39.8 8.3 12.7 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 3.6 6.6 11.0 79.0 48.1 37.9 4.1 7.0 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 7.2 11.2 17.1 82.4 47.9 40.5 7.6 11.8 16.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 6.5 10.1 11.8 74.2 44.2 35.7 7.2 11.7 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.8 9.1 12.1 91.3 55.6 43.5 4.8 7.9 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 5.1 9.2 12.2 84.2 51.2 40.4 5.6 8.9 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 8.0 13.0 14.5 83.5 49.3 40.7 8.4 13.3 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 4.6 7.1 12.7 65.5 36.6 30.4 6.1 11.4 18.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 5.4 8.5 12.3 73.7 45.0 37.5 5.6 9.8 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 4.8 7.0 11.7 65.1 38.3 31.2 5.6 10.5 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 4.4 6.6 11.9 67.2 37.3 30.9 5.6 9.9 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 11.0 17.6 16.7 86.3 50.3 42.3 11.8 17.6 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 3.4 6.0 10.4 72.6 44.5 35.0 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------