***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2020.-26.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 21.1 21.4 20.0 2.2 75.5 69.2 17.8 19.2 20.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 21.3 21.8 20.1 2.4 76.8 70.0 17.8 19.3 20.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 21.3 21.6 20.2 2.2 74.9 68.6 17.8 19.3 20.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 13.5 13.2 16.2 1.2 65.2 61.5 10.4 11.9 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 21.2 20.9 17.5 1.3 65.6 62.2 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 18.5 18.7 14.9 0.7 58.8 57.4 16.6 17.9 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 20.8 21.1 19.9 2.3 75.9 69.4 17.4 18.8 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 8.8 8.1 15.4 0.9 61.0 59.3 5.7 7.2 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 20.6 20.5 18.4 1.5 68.0 64.0 17.4 18.9 20.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 20.7 20.4 16.6 1.3 65.3 62.2 17.6 19.1 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 20.9 20.3 17.5 1.1 63.2 60.8 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 20.1 19.3 16.4 0.9 61.0 59.2 16.8 18.3 19.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 20.9 20.1 16.5 0.9 60.2 59.0 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 21.4 21.7 18.8 2.2 74.1 67.6 17.9 19.4 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 20.4 20.3 18.2 1.3 67.0 62.3 17.6 18.9 20.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 21.4 20.8 16.9 1.0 62.3 60.1 18.2 19.7 21.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 20.4 20.9 19.8 2.4 76.9 69.7 17.1 18.5 19.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 20.4 20.2 16.1 1.5 66.6 62.9 17.2 18.7 20.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 21.0 21.5 20.2 2.4 76.8 69.9 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 15.5 14.9 13.5 1.1 63.0 60.7 12.2 13.7 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 20.9 21.0 19.3 1.7 69.5 64.9 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 21.3 22.2 19.9 2.5 78.7 70.8 17.8 19.4 20.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 21.5 22.0 20.2 2.4 76.4 69.4 17.9 19.5 20.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 20.9 21.0 18.5 2.0 71.9 66.4 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 21.0 21.0 18.1 1.7 70.3 65.5 17.8 19.2 20.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 19.1 19.3 15.4 0.8 59.7 58.1 17.1 18.5 19.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 20.9 21.2 19.2 2.1 74.6 68.6 17.6 19.0 20.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 19.7 20.3 16.9 1.1 64.0 60.6 17.8 19.1 20.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 15.5 15.1 15.2 1.4 65.3 62.1 12.1 13.7 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 21.0 21.5 20.1 2.3 76.5 69.9 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------