***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 20.3 20.3 19.0 0.3 57.4 55.6 19.0 19.9 20.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 20.2 20.2 18.9 0.3 57.0 55.5 18.8 19.8 20.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 20.2 20.2 19.1 0.4 58.0 56.0 18.9 19.8 20.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.9 13.1 17.4 0.5 61.3 58.0 11.6 12.5 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 20.3 20.4 17.7 0.4 59.1 56.4 19.1 19.9 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 18.7 18.9 16.0 0.5 60.7 57.0 17.6 18.4 19.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 19.8 19.7 18.8 0.2 55.2 54.1 18.5 19.5 20.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 7.8 7.9 16.2 0.4 58.0 55.5 6.6 7.5 8.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 19.8 19.8 18.2 0.4 58.7 56.2 18.5 19.4 20.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 19.7 19.8 17.0 0.4 58.1 55.7 18.6 19.4 20.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 20.0 20.0 17.4 0.4 58.6 55.9 18.7 19.6 20.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 19.0 19.0 17.0 0.4 57.9 55.3 17.9 18.7 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 19.9 19.9 16.6 0.3 57.2 54.8 18.7 19.6 20.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 20.1 20.1 17.9 0.3 56.9 55.4 18.7 19.7 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 20.1 20.4 18.0 0.6 63.4 59.4 18.9 19.7 20.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 20.4 20.5 17.1 0.4 58.5 55.7 19.2 20.0 20.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 19.5 19.3 18.6 0.2 54.8 53.9 18.1 19.1 20.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 19.3 19.3 16.4 0.4 57.9 55.8 18.1 18.9 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 19.9 19.9 19.0 0.4 57.7 56.0 18.5 19.4 20.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.3 14.2 0.4 57.2 55.2 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 20.1 20.1 18.8 0.4 58.4 56.2 18.8 19.7 20.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 18.5 20.0 18.6 0.3 55.6 54.5 18.7 19.7 20.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 20.2 20.2 18.9 0.4 57.4 55.7 18.8 19.8 20.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 19.7 19.7 17.9 0.4 57.7 55.8 18.5 19.4 20.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 20.0 20.1 17.7 0.4 58.3 56.0 18.8 19.7 20.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 19.2 19.2 16.2 0.4 58.3 55.2 18.0 18.8 19.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 19.9 19.8 18.3 0.3 56.5 54.9 18.7 19.5 20.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 20.1 20.3 17.8 0.6 62.2 58.4 18.9 19.8 20.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 14.2 14.2 15.4 0.4 57.4 55.6 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 20.0 20.0 19.1 0.3 57.4 55.8 18.6 19.5 20.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------