***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-02.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 5.7 6.3 16.2 95.5 61.8 52.5 2.5 4.4 7.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.8 6.6 14.2 96.8 62.5 50.7 2.7 4.6 7.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 6.9 8.3 16.4 102.7 64.4 54.4 3.2 5.5 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.2 11.7 21.2 109.8 66.7 57.5 4.5 7.5 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 7.0 9.2 20.0 110.2 66.7 57.4 3.2 5.7 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 9.8 12.3 22.7 110.1 66.2 57.1 4.5 7.8 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.6 6.4 14.3 96.6 62.5 51.5 2.3 4.3 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 15.0 18.4 21.4 114.3 67.3 56.7 8.7 12.8 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 6.5 8.5 20.3 108.7 66.0 56.6 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 8.4 10.7 23.1 113.8 67.4 57.4 4.1 6.8 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 5.6 8.2 19.5 116.9 68.9 58.1 2.2 4.4 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.1 12.1 18.8 114.8 67.8 56.9 3.9 7.1 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.7 12.4 21.0 112.0 67.0 57.6 4.7 7.9 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.6 10.6 21.5 100.8 62.9 52.9 4.3 7.4 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.6 9.7 19.8 109.0 66.9 55.7 3.1 5.8 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 7.0 9.8 20.4 113.2 67.5 57.5 2.6 5.3 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 5.2 5.8 13.5 95.3 61.9 50.0 1.9 3.8 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 9.2 11.5 23.8 109.2 65.7 55.6 3.8 7.1 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 5.6 6.3 14.5 97.1 62.5 51.1 2.8 4.6 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.0 10.5 22.5 106.6 64.3 54.4 4.2 7.2 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 5.7 6.8 18.1 102.2 64.3 55.2 2.8 4.7 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.7 13.8 94.1 61.5 50.5 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.4 7.0 15.0 95.9 61.8 51.4 3.1 5.1 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 7.3 8.9 21.2 106.6 65.1 55.0 3.2 5.7 9.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 6.9 7.9 19.3 97.5 62.6 54.0 3.4 5.7 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.2 9.7 17.5 101.5 63.7 55.3 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.7 17.8 96.6 62.3 53.2 3.0 4.8 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 6.9 9.2 21.1 111.0 67.2 57.0 2.8 5.3 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.9 16.7 23.0 106.7 64.7 54.7 6.2 10.9 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.2 6.1 15.0 99.1 63.3 51.8 2.3 4.1 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------