***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-02.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 8.2 9.2 9.0 -0.2 46.6 47.6 8.4 9.4 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 7.3 8.6 8.7 -0.2 46.2 47.2 7.6 8.9 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 9.2 10.5 9.2 -0.1 48.8 49.3 9.4 10.6 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.3 6.7 0.0 50.7 50.9 3.9 5.2 6.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 7.9 7.4 6.8 0.0 50.8 51.1 6.1 7.3 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 6.2 6.0 4.9 0.3 54.3 54.0 4.9 5.8 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 7.4 8.5 8.6 -0.3 45.1 46.2 7.7 8.9 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 1.3 1.1 4.8 0.2 53.3 53.4 -0.3 0.9 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 6.6 8.0 7.0 0.1 51.0 51.2 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.1 5.6 0.2 53.1 53.0 6.9 8.0 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.5 6.3 0.1 52.1 52.2 6.4 7.4 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.9 5.5 0.1 52.1 52.4 4.8 5.7 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.3 7.0 4.9 0.1 51.0 51.7 6.0 6.9 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 7.3 8.7 6.9 0.1 51.3 51.5 7.5 8.6 9.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 7.3 8.3 7.6 -0.2 46.5 47.6 7.5 8.5 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.5 5.7 0.2 52.7 52.7 7.3 8.4 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 7.8 8.9 8.5 -0.3 46.0 46.8 8.1 9.2 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.2 4.9 0.3 55.5 54.7 4.7 5.8 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 7.4 8.6 8.7 -0.2 47.3 48.1 7.6 8.8 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 3.2 3.1 2.9 0.3 54.9 54.7 1.8 2.8 3.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 6.6 8.0 8.4 0.0 50.7 50.8 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 7.1 8.2 8.3 -0.2 47.1 47.7 7.3 8.3 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 7.0 8.4 8.7 -0.1 49.0 49.5 7.4 8.4 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 6.7 8.0 6.7 0.1 52.5 52.2 6.8 7.9 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 7.1 8.5 7.7 -0.1 48.0 48.7 7.3 8.6 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 7.2 6.8 4.7 0.0 50.1 51.3 6.0 6.8 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 7.2 8.7 8.4 -0.3 45.8 47.0 7.6 9.1 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 7.0 6.6 6.8 0.0 49.2 50.0 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.8 4.4 0.3 55.8 55.1 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 7.4 8.7 8.8 -0.3 45.8 46.9 7.7 9.0 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------