***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 21.4 21.8 19.6 0.9 61.6 58.0 19.7 21.0 22.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 21.5 21.7 19.4 0.8 60.5 56.9 19.2 20.8 22.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 21.2 21.7 19.9 0.9 62.5 58.7 19.1 20.6 22.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.9 17.6 1.2 65.8 61.4 11.6 13.3 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 21.4 22.1 18.3 1.1 65.1 60.6 19.3 20.8 22.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 20.7 20.7 16.3 1.5 69.1 63.1 17.3 18.9 20.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 21.1 21.3 19.4 0.7 59.6 56.2 18.9 20.4 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.8 9.8 16.9 1.4 67.8 61.8 6.7 8.2 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 21.9 21.6 18.6 1.1 64.7 60.3 18.8 20.3 21.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 20.8 21.6 17.6 1.3 66.2 61.0 18.8 20.2 21.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 22.0 22.0 18.2 1.3 67.4 61.9 18.9 20.4 21.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 21.2 21.2 17.8 1.4 68.7 62.6 17.9 19.5 20.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 22.1 22.1 17.1 1.4 68.0 62.5 18.7 20.3 21.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 21.1 21.7 18.4 1.0 63.1 58.9 19.0 20.5 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 22.1 22.0 18.4 1.2 67.4 62.7 19.0 20.5 21.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 22.6 22.5 17.7 1.4 68.0 62.5 19.2 20.8 22.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 20.8 20.9 19.3 0.7 59.3 56.1 18.6 20.1 21.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 20.4 21.2 17.2 1.3 65.8 60.5 18.3 19.8 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 21.0 21.4 19.6 0.9 61.6 57.7 18.8 20.4 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 15.2 16.1 14.6 1.3 66.0 60.2 13.1 14.7 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 21.2 21.7 19.4 1.0 63.3 59.3 19.0 20.6 22.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 21.3 21.6 19.2 0.7 60.0 56.6 19.1 20.7 22.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 21.2 21.8 19.8 1.0 63.0 58.7 19.0 20.6 22.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 20.7 21.4 18.5 1.2 64.6 60.0 18.7 20.1 21.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 21.1 21.6 18.0 0.9 62.4 58.8 19.0 20.5 21.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 20.0 21.2 16.9 1.5 69.9 63.4 17.9 19.4 20.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 20.9 21.3 18.9 0.8 61.5 57.9 19.0 20.4 21.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 22.2 22.2 17.9 1.3 67.4 62.5 19.0 20.5 22.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 15.3 16.1 16.3 1.3 65.5 60.1 13.1 14.7 16.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 21.1 21.4 19.5 0.8 60.9 57.3 18.9 20.4 21.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------