***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 36.2 44.9 60.2 90.0 47.8 44.6 36.7 46.2 56.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 28.4 40.6 55.6 93.5 52.0 46.9 28.5 39.2 51.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 37.9 48.3 58.8 90.8 48.9 44.5 38.7 49.0 60.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 57.2 64.7 62.1 83.7 42.6 40.5 58.8 69.5 80.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 36.0 44.0 58.4 82.6 41.4 39.2 38.4 49.8 62.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 41.5 48.2 68.1 85.5 41.8 41.1 42.8 53.5 64.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 46.2 40.5 55.5 92.6 51.0 45.8 29.1 39.9 52.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 77.6 86.6 65.4 84.4 41.7 40.0 80.0 92.8 106.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 37.1 44.7 61.1 84.7 43.3 40.2 38.3 49.1 61.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 46.9 54.5 68.1 84.9 42.7 39.9 48.7 59.0 70.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 37.9 45.5 57.5 82.9 41.4 39.1 40.1 51.1 63.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 44.4 51.1 57.6 83.3 41.1 39.6 47.0 56.2 65.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 45.1 52.3 63.5 83.3 40.9 40.7 47.5 57.7 68.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 69.2 61.4 74.7 90.8 48.8 45.6 48.5 62.5 77.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 35.3 44.3 55.9 82.8 43.7 40.7 37.5 48.3 60.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 39.5 47.4 59.7 84.0 41.9 40.4 41.6 52.9 64.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 49.1 42.9 54.1 92.4 51.3 46.9 29.3 41.7 56.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 48.0 57.0 75.7 89.3 46.2 42.4 48.9 59.3 70.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 52.2 47.3 57.3 93.6 51.8 47.1 34.3 45.9 58.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 44.6 52.6 77.2 88.3 44.9 42.5 45.9 55.4 65.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 35.5 42.2 57.8 84.9 44.0 41.0 37.0 45.0 53.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 47.5 43.0 57.6 94.2 52.2 48.1 30.7 41.6 53.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 51.0 46.9 60.2 93.1 51.2 47.0 36.0 46.2 57.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 46.3 57.0 69.4 90.9 48.4 44.2 46.8 58.1 70.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 39.5 48.8 64.2 85.7 44.1 41.9 41.9 52.3 63.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 37.9 42.7 58.4 80.7 38.7 38.9 39.4 49.5 60.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 36.9 47.9 64.1 89.6 47.2 44.2 38.4 49.9 62.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 36.5 43.7 58.9 83.1 42.7 40.4 37.9 48.3 59.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 61.2 74.4 78.3 91.4 48.0 44.2 62.0 76.2 91.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 30.3 41.4 57.4 93.9 52.0 46.6 30.7 40.1 50.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------