***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 8.7 10.0 9.4 0.0 49.9 49.8 9.0 10.0 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 8.3 9.7 9.2 0.0 50.7 50.0 8.6 9.6 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 10.1 11.5 9.4 0.0 50.4 50.6 10.4 11.5 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.9 6.1 6.7 -0.1 48.7 49.6 5.1 6.2 7.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 8.5 8.1 6.9 0.0 50.9 51.4 7.0 8.1 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.0 6.6 4.8 -0.1 48.0 50.4 5.9 6.7 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 8.4 9.6 9.2 0.0 50.3 50.0 8.7 9.6 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 2.4 2.2 4.8 0.2 53.9 53.8 1.1 2.0 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.1 8.9 7.2 0.1 52.0 52.5 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.0 5.7 0.1 53.2 53.4 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.4 6.2 0.1 52.5 52.9 7.5 8.3 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.1 7.0 5.5 0.2 54.5 54.1 6.0 6.8 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 8.1 7.9 5.1 0.1 52.0 52.9 7.0 7.8 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.6 7.2 0.2 53.9 53.8 8.6 9.4 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 8.6 9.5 7.8 -0.1 48.4 48.9 8.7 9.6 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.6 9.3 5.8 0.1 51.7 52.6 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 8.9 10.0 9.0 0.1 51.1 50.2 9.2 10.0 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 6.8 6.7 5.0 0.3 55.7 55.7 5.7 6.5 7.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 8.4 9.7 9.2 0.1 51.6 50.6 8.8 9.6 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 4.0 4.0 2.9 0.2 55.0 55.1 3.0 3.7 4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 7.7 8.9 8.6 0.1 51.1 51.3 7.9 8.8 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 8.1 9.2 8.8 0.1 51.7 50.6 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 8.2 9.5 9.0 0.2 53.4 52.2 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 9.3 9.1 6.9 0.2 53.9 54.1 8.2 8.9 9.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 8.3 9.5 8.0 0.0 49.9 49.9 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.0 7.8 4.9 0.2 53.7 53.8 6.9 7.7 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 8.2 10.0 8.8 0.0 50.2 50.1 8.5 9.9 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.4 6.9 -0.1 47.6 49.0 6.7 7.6 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.7 4.4 0.3 56.3 56.5 5.3 6.3 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 8.3 9.8 9.3 0.0 50.2 49.9 8.7 9.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------