***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.2 4.5 15.1 82.1 53.3 43.9 2.0 4.0 6.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.6 5.0 13.1 81.0 52.7 42.7 2.4 4.5 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.4 6.8 15.1 86.2 55.1 46.2 3.2 5.8 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 6.3 11.4 17.6 89.4 56.7 45.6 6.1 9.7 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 8.4 8.3 17.2 92.6 58.4 48.7 3.9 6.6 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 4.0 9.1 18.3 93.0 57.2 46.5 4.0 7.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 2.6 4.9 12.6 76.7 50.1 40.2 2.7 4.9 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 10.2 22.0 19.8 107.4 63.9 52.2 9.9 15.7 23.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.5 17.6 90.9 57.3 48.3 4.7 7.8 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 10.7 11.0 20.2 98.3 59.9 50.0 4.7 8.2 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.7 8.9 16.6 97.4 60.4 49.2 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.7 11.3 16.4 101.7 61.9 49.4 4.6 8.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 5.1 10.9 17.5 94.7 58.7 46.7 5.0 8.6 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 10.5 9.8 20.0 91.1 56.7 46.0 4.7 8.1 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 3.4 7.6 14.9 82.0 54.7 40.8 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.4 8.0 16.8 94.5 59.3 47.3 3.4 6.1 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 2.1 4.8 12.9 80.7 52.4 41.2 2.1 4.4 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.6 21.6 97.9 59.7 50.4 4.7 9.2 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.3 6.5 13.9 85.4 54.8 44.5 3.0 5.5 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.7 12.7 22.7 109.9 65.0 54.1 5.1 8.5 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.4 6.6 16.2 87.7 56.6 47.2 3.2 5.5 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.6 6.2 14.6 89.5 57.2 44.4 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.6 7.3 15.0 88.6 56.2 46.0 3.4 6.1 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.4 9.4 19.1 92.9 57.8 48.0 4.0 7.3 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.7 5.8 17.0 83.6 53.8 43.9 2.4 5.1 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.1 10.5 17.4 104.0 62.8 49.0 3.8 7.1 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.0 5.7 16.1 82.4 53.0 43.4 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.6 7.9 16.9 88.5 56.9 44.9 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.4 16.8 21.9 103.0 62.0 51.8 6.7 11.9 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.1 4.0 13.7 82.2 53.4 43.6 1.9 3.6 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------