***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.3 9.6 0.5 58.6 54.6 8.8 9.8 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.7 10.1 9.5 0.6 61.0 57.3 8.1 9.3 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 11.6 11.9 9.8 0.6 61.3 56.6 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.6 6.4 6.9 0.4 57.9 53.5 4.8 5.9 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 6.5 8.0 6.9 0.2 54.5 52.0 6.7 7.7 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 6.8 6.8 5.1 0.4 58.1 54.6 5.5 6.4 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 9.7 10.0 9.6 0.7 61.2 57.2 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 2.1 1.8 4.7 0.1 53.0 51.8 0.6 1.6 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 7.4 8.8 7.2 0.3 55.2 52.7 7.6 8.5 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 7.5 8.8 5.6 0.2 54.3 52.3 7.7 8.5 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 7.0 8.3 6.2 0.3 55.1 52.5 7.2 8.0 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.4 6.7 5.5 0.2 55.0 52.7 5.6 6.4 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 6.3 7.6 5.1 0.2 54.0 51.7 6.6 7.4 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.5 9.5 7.2 0.4 56.8 54.3 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.9 8.3 0.6 62.7 56.1 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 7.7 9.2 5.8 0.3 55.7 52.7 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 10.0 10.2 9.3 0.6 60.2 57.0 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.2 6.6 5.0 0.3 56.0 53.6 5.3 6.3 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 9.7 10.0 9.5 0.7 62.0 58.0 8.3 9.3 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 2.4 3.5 2.7 0.1 51.0 50.9 2.6 3.4 4.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.8 8.6 0.3 56.2 53.2 7.5 8.5 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 9.1 9.3 9.1 0.6 61.1 57.7 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.3 9.7 9.4 0.7 63.3 58.7 8.0 8.9 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.9 7.0 0.4 58.4 55.0 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 7.8 9.4 8.0 0.3 54.6 51.8 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 6.4 7.8 4.9 0.4 58.2 54.6 6.5 7.4 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.2 8.9 0.4 56.6 53.2 8.1 9.6 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.7 7.3 0.5 60.1 54.8 6.4 7.2 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 4.8 6.3 4.3 0.3 55.0 53.2 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 9.9 10.3 9.7 0.7 61.3 57.2 8.3 9.5 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------