***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2013.-21.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 6.5 10.7 68.4 44.9 37.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 4.4 6.9 11.0 69.5 44.3 36.4 5.0 8.0 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 8.0 11.4 11.7 73.5 46.4 39.5 8.1 12.5 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 10.8 14.7 13.0 72.8 47.3 39.5 11.0 15.5 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 15.4 13.5 14.4 82.4 52.5 43.6 8.2 12.7 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 7.4 12.6 17.9 84.9 52.4 44.0 7.9 12.0 17.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 3.5 6.0 11.1 69.8 44.7 36.6 3.9 7.2 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 16.4 26.6 16.8 93.9 57.8 48.5 16.5 23.2 30.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.1 13.8 15.0 87.7 54.7 45.4 7.5 12.3 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.6 17.1 17.1 93.2 57.4 48.0 9.2 14.4 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.0 13.8 14.0 87.9 55.5 45.8 7.0 11.8 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 9.4 15.4 14.3 92.9 57.9 47.1 9.6 13.3 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 9.2 15.6 15.8 87.4 53.8 44.5 9.8 14.4 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 8.8 14.6 16.1 86.1 53.3 44.4 8.6 13.6 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 5.2 9.5 11.9 71.6 48.3 39.4 5.7 9.9 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 7.5 13.7 14.5 85.1 53.1 43.9 7.6 12.7 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 3.6 7.0 11.4 75.4 48.9 37.5 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 10.0 17.9 19.5 95.0 57.9 48.5 10.1 15.1 21.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 4.6 7.0 11.1 70.6 44.5 37.1 4.9 8.1 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 8.9 14.4 21.2 89.4 54.6 47.3 9.1 13.2 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 7.4 11.5 12.5 78.8 50.2 41.5 7.3 11.5 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 4.0 7.0 11.3 70.9 46.1 36.1 4.5 7.8 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 5.8 8.6 12.1 76.0 47.3 40.1 5.6 9.2 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 9.3 16.2 16.4 89.2 54.5 45.5 9.1 14.5 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 14.7 10.0 13.5 72.3 46.3 39.7 6.2 11.3 18.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 5.2 10.6 14.5 85.3 53.5 44.7 5.5 9.6 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.9 8.7 12.3 68.4 44.1 37.6 5.7 10.5 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 5.7 10.1 12.6 74.0 48.7 39.9 6.4 10.4 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 13.2 21.8 20.2 93.6 57.0 48.1 13.4 19.2 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 3.7 6.0 11.0 68.4 43.8 36.8 4.2 7.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------