***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 5.2 12.6 12.3 87.5 59.2 41.7 5.4 9.6 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.8 8.9 12.0 86.7 57.8 43.4 5.0 7.5 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 6.8 15.1 12.7 93.7 60.7 43.6 7.2 11.6 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 9.6 20.3 14.0 91.7 60.1 41.4 10.8 16.4 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 7.6 17.5 14.6 98.6 62.7 46.3 7.5 12.5 19.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.2 18.4 20.5 116.5 68.0 52.2 8.0 12.3 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 4.1 9.1 11.2 81.6 55.4 41.4 4.2 7.6 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 14.8 27.7 16.6 100.9 62.7 50.4 14.9 21.7 29.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 7.0 16.5 14.3 97.1 62.0 46.0 6.9 11.9 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 16.4 17.1 16.2 95.5 60.9 48.2 7.9 12.9 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 6.6 16.9 13.9 97.2 62.1 48.0 6.3 11.7 19.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 8.4 18.0 14.4 108.3 65.8 50.5 8.5 12.8 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 8.8 21.6 17.1 116.0 68.1 51.7 8.8 13.9 20.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 7.7 19.0 18.2 109.1 66.2 48.9 8.0 12.9 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 5.1 13.2 14.4 93.5 61.1 43.0 5.1 9.5 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 6.7 19.5 15.8 110.9 66.7 50.4 6.4 11.8 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 3.7 8.6 11.0 81.7 55.9 41.9 3.8 7.2 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.4 16.7 18.6 100.6 62.4 50.2 8.3 12.7 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.1 9.3 12.8 92.5 60.3 44.8 4.1 7.0 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.3 16.3 22.5 106.2 64.6 54.5 7.6 11.8 16.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 6.9 16.3 13.4 99.7 63.1 45.4 7.2 11.7 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.7 10.0 12.5 89.0 59.4 44.8 4.8 7.9 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 5.5 12.6 14.3 102.5 64.3 46.6 5.6 8.9 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 8.7 18.0 16.4 101.6 63.1 48.0 8.4 13.3 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 6.0 15.0 15.2 90.6 58.9 43.0 6.1 11.4 18.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 5.8 17.0 16.6 119.9 69.7 53.1 5.6 9.8 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 5.9 13.5 14.2 87.2 58.2 42.7 5.6 10.5 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 5.4 14.2 14.3 98.6 62.6 43.8 5.6 9.9 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.0 23.5 20.5 104.7 64.1 52.2 11.8 17.6 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.9 8.7 12.0 86.4 57.7 42.2 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------