***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.04.2014.-13.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 17.9 18.8 17.7 2.6 77.8 73.6 14.8 16.3 17.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 18.2 19.2 17.7 2.9 80.9 76.2 15.0 16.4 17.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 18.5 19.3 17.7 2.7 77.4 73.2 15.3 16.8 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 12.1 13.0 15.5 2.7 76.6 72.9 7.9 9.8 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 19.4 20.0 16.3 2.7 75.7 72.2 15.7 17.4 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 18.8 19.0 14.2 2.6 72.0 69.6 14.7 16.6 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 18.1 19.1 17.6 2.8 80.9 76.3 15.0 16.4 17.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 7.0 7.6 14.6 2.8 75.4 72.4 3.4 5.1 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 18.9 19.5 17.2 2.7 76.1 72.5 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 19.0 19.4 15.6 2.7 74.7 71.5 15.4 17.0 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 19.4 19.9 16.1 2.7 74.5 71.4 15.6 17.3 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 18.6 19.2 15.4 2.8 75.6 72.6 14.7 16.5 18.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 19.7 20.2 15.4 2.7 74.3 71.5 15.7 17.5 19.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 18.4 19.1 16.9 2.8 77.1 73.1 15.0 16.5 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 19.1 19.9 17.0 2.6 77.5 73.7 15.9 17.3 18.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 19.9 20.5 15.8 2.7 74.3 71.4 16.0 17.8 19.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 17.4 18.4 17.4 2.9 81.8 77.0 14.4 15.7 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 18.3 18.8 14.9 2.8 74.5 71.4 14.8 16.4 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 18.1 19.1 17.8 2.9 80.5 75.9 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 13.5 14.2 12.9 3.1 77.1 74.1 9.8 11.4 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 18.7 19.3 17.6 2.6 75.4 71.7 15.4 16.9 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 18.1 19.2 17.5 3.0 81.6 76.7 15.0 16.4 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 18.4 19.3 17.8 2.9 79.5 75.0 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 18.3 18.8 16.5 2.7 75.3 71.7 15.0 16.5 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 18.7 19.2 16.4 2.5 75.7 71.9 15.4 16.9 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 19.0 19.5 14.6 2.8 75.5 72.9 15.1 16.8 18.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 18.5 19.1 17.0 2.5 76.4 72.5 15.4 16.8 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 19.5 20.2 16.2 2.6 76.1 72.6 15.8 17.5 19.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 13.3 13.9 14.2 2.9 75.6 72.6 9.7 11.3 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 18.0 19.1 17.8 2.8 80.1 75.6 15.0 16.4 17.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------