***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-02.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9.7 10.6 10.4 1.2 68.8 63.4 8.4 9.4 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.3 10.4 10.1 1.2 69.1 63.5 7.6 8.9 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 11.0 11.9 10.3 1.0 67.4 62.4 9.4 10.6 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 5.7 6.5 7.6 0.9 65.4 61.4 3.9 5.2 6.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 7.7 8.3 7.7 0.8 64.5 60.8 6.1 7.3 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 6.1 6.7 5.8 1.0 66.4 63.0 4.9 5.8 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 9.3 10.3 10.1 1.2 69.1 63.2 7.7 8.9 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 1.3 1.8 5.6 0.8 64.0 61.0 -0.3 0.9 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 8.3 8.9 7.9 0.8 64.9 61.0 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 8.3 8.8 6.4 0.8 64.2 60.8 6.9 8.0 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 7.7 8.1 7.0 0.7 62.7 59.6 6.4 7.4 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 6.1 6.5 6.3 0.7 63.1 60.3 4.8 5.7 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 7.2 7.6 5.9 0.8 63.7 60.8 6.0 6.9 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 9.0 9.5 7.9 0.9 65.2 61.5 7.5 8.6 9.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 8.8 9.3 8.6 0.8 64.4 60.7 7.5 8.5 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 8.7 9.2 6.5 0.8 63.5 60.4 7.3 8.4 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 10.2 10.4 10.0 1.3 70.1 64.1 8.1 9.2 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 6.3 6.7 5.6 0.8 62.9 60.2 4.7 5.8 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 9.2 10.0 10.1 1.2 68.4 63.3 7.6 8.8 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 3.2 3.5 3.6 0.8 62.1 60.4 1.8 2.8 3.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 8.3 9.1 9.4 1.0 66.8 62.2 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 9.4 9.5 9.8 1.2 69.9 64.3 7.3 8.3 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 8.8 9.5 9.8 1.0 67.3 62.7 7.4 8.4 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 8.2 8.7 7.6 0.8 64.3 60.7 6.8 7.9 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 9.0 10.0 8.9 1.1 68.1 62.9 7.3 8.6 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 7.1 7.6 5.6 0.8 64.1 61.4 6.0 6.8 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 9.5 10.8 9.8 1.2 68.9 63.2 7.6 9.1 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 6.9 7.4 7.8 0.8 64.4 60.9 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 5.9 6.2 5.0 0.7 61.8 59.8 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 9.5 10.5 10.2 1.2 68.4 62.9 7.7 9.0 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------