***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 32.5 49.8 56.3 100.4 56.8 51.9 33.3 44.7 57.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 42.3 40.4 49.0 97.5 54.7 50.1 27.1 37.4 48.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 53.7 51.3 54.8 98.0 55.1 51.1 35.4 47.5 60.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 68.1 66.5 64.1 98.4 54.9 50.4 52.8 63.3 74.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 55.7 46.4 59.7 91.2 48.0 46.2 34.3 48.0 63.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 53.4 50.9 72.6 98.5 53.1 49.4 38.8 48.9 59.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 42.0 39.5 49.5 98.0 55.4 50.7 24.8 35.8 48.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 70.0 80.4 68.1 92.1 46.3 44.3 71.8 82.8 94.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 52.8 47.0 61.4 92.8 50.0 47.6 35.5 47.0 59.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 43.6 54.1 70.8 92.4 47.6 45.5 44.5 55.8 68.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 36.2 44.5 59.0 89.1 44.8 43.5 36.7 48.0 60.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 40.2 47.5 59.4 90.0 44.6 43.0 41.0 50.6 61.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 44.3 53.0 68.9 92.2 45.8 43.7 45.9 55.2 65.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 63.6 59.0 70.7 96.8 52.5 48.1 45.1 57.0 70.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 47.0 52.4 62.3 108.1 62.7 56.7 30.8 42.3 55.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 38.6 48.0 62.2 90.8 46.0 44.1 39.6 50.4 62.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 43.1 39.0 47.1 94.0 52.2 47.7 27.3 37.7 49.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 41.8 52.6 76.0 94.5 49.1 46.5 42.7 53.1 64.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 46.5 44.4 50.5 97.8 54.8 50.2 28.9 40.6 54.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 55.6 49.6 78.8 95.5 48.7 46.3 40.5 50.6 61.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 47.0 43.7 57.3 95.6 52.9 49.5 31.1 41.8 53.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 43.4 40.1 50.3 96.0 53.6 48.3 26.3 37.6 50.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 46.0 43.0 53.5 96.9 53.8 49.4 30.4 40.6 52.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 41.0 53.5 66.4 94.5 50.5 47.3 41.9 52.9 65.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 55.2 52.1 63.4 97.0 53.8 49.6 37.2 49.1 62.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 52.7 46.7 65.3 94.3 48.6 46.4 38.0 47.7 57.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 52.9 51.2 60.7 100.0 56.3 51.5 32.9 45.7 60.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 51.0 50.8 63.7 101.8 57.4 52.2 35.8 46.1 57.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 57.5 70.7 76.3 94.5 48.3 46.0 58.4 72.0 86.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 40.9 39.3 51.0 98.4 55.3 50.7 27.1 36.2 46.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------