***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.04.2016.-24.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 19.4 22.2 15.9 141.9 76.0 64.9 7.1 11.6 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 10.2 17.4 14.4 138.5 75.0 60.8 4.0 7.8 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 19.2 22.1 15.8 137.5 74.7 63.3 6.0 10.7 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 17.6 23.1 17.1 122.3 70.2 58.5 9.5 14.7 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.8 17.4 16.7 118.2 68.8 58.1 5.3 9.9 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 13.1 16.1 20.4 112.6 66.3 58.4 7.2 11.1 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 10.0 16.9 14.4 139.8 75.3 62.6 4.2 7.9 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 21.9 27.0 19.2 116.8 68.3 57.2 13.0 18.9 25.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.7 17.6 17.8 120.7 69.8 58.8 5.3 9.7 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.0 19.9 20.1 116.1 68.3 57.5 7.4 12.3 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 13.6 16.7 15.8 108.7 65.2 54.8 6.0 10.7 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.6 16.5 16.7 112.1 66.4 55.9 7.3 11.3 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 15.6 20.1 20.0 114.5 67.2 59.0 7.9 13.0 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.6 23.8 21.3 136.8 74.5 60.8 7.9 12.9 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 12.5 17.9 16.0 125.6 71.4 58.5 5.7 9.9 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 13.9 17.1 17.6 110.5 65.9 56.7 6.9 11.4 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.0 18.0 14.2 128.8 72.4 58.3 5.1 9.2 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 14.1 19.9 22.3 121.3 70.0 58.6 6.8 11.6 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.2 21.2 15.0 141.9 75.8 61.3 5.0 9.4 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 13.4 18.9 22.9 123.6 70.5 59.0 6.6 11.1 16.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 15.7 17.5 16.5 133.8 73.7 61.5 6.3 10.0 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 10.9 15.1 14.5 124.2 71.0 55.9 4.7 8.3 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 10.8 18.3 16.2 146.1 76.8 62.2 4.8 8.5 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 15.6 23.7 19.6 130.3 72.6 59.9 6.9 12.3 19.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 18.8 22.1 17.9 141.2 75.9 64.3 5.4 10.0 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 12.7 16.3 18.8 117.2 68.2 58.1 5.8 10.0 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 20.0 23.0 17.1 142.1 76.1 65.1 6.0 10.8 17.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 11.7 16.3 17.7 123.0 70.4 58.6 5.4 9.3 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.6 25.3 22.4 122.8 70.3 57.8 9.5 15.4 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 14.8 17.6 14.6 139.4 75.2 62.2 4.7 8.4 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------