***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.04.2016.-24.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 19.1 17.7 17.5 -0.7 41.4 45.0 17.0 18.5 19.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 16.5 17.7 17.3 -0.5 43.1 45.9 16.7 18.3 19.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 19.1 17.6 17.6 -0.7 40.8 44.5 16.9 18.5 19.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.6 10.4 15.4 -0.7 41.8 44.9 9.6 11.1 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 19.1 17.7 15.9 -0.8 40.5 44.3 17.0 18.5 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 15.5 16.5 13.9 -0.6 43.8 45.9 15.7 17.0 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 18.6 17.3 17.3 -0.6 42.7 45.7 16.4 17.9 19.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 6.8 5.5 14.2 -0.7 41.8 44.7 4.7 6.2 7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 18.6 17.1 16.2 -0.8 39.8 43.9 16.5 18.0 19.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 18.7 17.3 15.0 -0.8 40.3 43.9 16.6 18.1 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 18.8 17.5 15.6 -0.7 41.4 44.8 16.7 18.2 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 17.9 16.7 15.2 -0.6 42.5 45.3 15.8 17.3 18.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 18.7 17.5 14.5 -0.6 42.7 45.4 16.6 18.1 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 19.2 17.6 16.0 -0.8 40.4 43.9 16.9 18.5 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 18.7 17.6 16.2 -0.5 43.1 45.3 16.8 18.1 19.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 19.1 17.9 15.3 -0.7 42.2 45.2 17.1 18.6 20.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 18.3 17.1 17.2 -0.5 43.8 46.4 16.1 17.6 19.1 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 16.0 16.8 14.5 -0.9 39.3 43.1 16.2 17.7 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 18.9 17.5 17.4 -0.6 42.8 45.8 16.5 18.2 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 13.3 11.8 12.0 -0.8 41.1 43.9 11.0 12.6 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 18.9 17.4 17.0 -0.8 39.8 43.9 16.7 18.3 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 19.2 17.9 17.2 -0.5 44.0 46.5 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 19.3 17.9 17.5 -0.6 42.1 45.3 17.0 18.6 20.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 18.8 17.1 15.9 -0.9 39.4 43.3 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 18.9 17.4 15.9 -0.7 40.6 44.4 16.7 18.3 19.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 18.0 17.1 14.4 -0.5 44.5 46.4 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 18.7 17.3 16.8 -0.7 41.3 44.9 16.6 18.1 19.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 18.8 17.7 15.6 -0.6 42.5 45.1 16.9 18.2 19.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.8 11.7 13.6 -0.9 39.5 43.1 11.1 12.6 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 16.3 17.4 17.4 -0.6 42.7 45.7 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------