***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 20.4 24.3 21.1 6.1 95.8 94.5 15.4 17.2 18.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 20.1 23.8 21.1 6.1 96.3 95.3 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 20.8 24.8 21.6 6.6 96.3 95.2 15.9 17.7 19.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 14.0 17.4 17.5 5.4 92.9 90.6 8.4 10.5 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 21.7 25.8 20.0 6.5 95.5 94.2 16.3 18.2 20.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 20.4 24.4 17.8 6.5 95.0 93.8 14.9 16.9 18.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 19.9 23.5 21.0 6.1 96.5 95.6 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 8.5 12.0 18.0 6.6 94.9 93.8 3.7 5.5 7.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 21.1 25.2 20.9 6.6 95.9 94.7 15.9 17.8 19.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 21.3 25.1 19.2 6.7 95.1 93.8 16.0 17.9 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 21.4 25.5 20.4 6.6 95.4 94.1 16.0 18.0 19.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 20.4 24.6 18.8 6.5 95.7 94.7 15.1 17.0 18.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 21.4 25.8 19.7 6.6 96.1 95.0 15.9 17.9 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 20.6 24.5 20.8 6.7 96.1 94.9 15.9 17.6 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 20.6 23.1 19.3 4.6 91.8 89.3 16.2 17.8 19.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 21.7 26.0 19.6 6.5 95.9 94.6 16.4 18.3 20.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 19.0 22.4 20.7 6.1 96.4 95.6 15.0 16.4 17.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 20.6 24.4 18.5 6.9 95.2 94.0 15.5 17.4 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 20.1 24.0 21.2 6.2 96.4 95.4 15.6 17.3 18.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 15.1 18.7 16.1 6.6 95.1 94.0 10.1 11.9 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 21.0 25.1 21.8 6.7 96.3 95.1 16.0 17.8 19.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 19.8 23.4 20.8 6.1 96.4 95.5 15.7 17.2 18.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 20.4 24.4 21.4 6.5 96.7 95.6 15.9 17.5 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 20.6 24.6 20.8 6.9 96.0 94.7 15.7 17.5 19.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 20.7 24.3 20.1 6.1 95.4 93.9 15.9 17.7 19.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 20.4 24.4 17.3 6.1 95.6 94.5 15.2 17.1 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 20.7 24.5 20.7 6.2 96.1 94.9 15.9 17.6 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 21.4 24.2 18.4 5.2 92.3 90.0 16.3 18.2 20.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 15.3 19.0 17.8 6.9 95.3 94.2 10.3 12.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 20.1 23.9 21.2 6.2 96.4 95.4 15.6 17.3 18.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------