***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 19.1 19.8 18.6 1.8 81.8 73.7 17.2 18.1 18.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 19.0 19.8 18.4 1.8 81.8 73.6 17.1 18.0 18.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 19.2 19.8 18.7 1.7 79.7 72.1 17.2 18.1 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 12.1 12.7 16.0 1.7 79.1 72.5 9.8 10.8 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 19.5 20.1 17.0 1.7 78.5 71.7 17.4 18.4 19.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 18.1 18.5 14.9 1.5 74.4 69.5 16.0 17.0 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 18.8 19.6 18.4 1.8 82.4 74.3 16.9 17.7 18.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 7.0 7.4 15.2 1.5 74.8 69.4 4.9 5.9 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 19.0 19.6 17.6 1.7 78.8 71.9 17.0 17.9 18.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 19.0 19.5 16.1 1.6 75.9 70.0 17.0 18.0 18.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 19.3 19.9 17.1 1.7 78.2 71.7 17.1 18.1 19.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 18.3 19.0 16.2 1.6 77.6 71.3 16.2 17.2 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 19.4 19.9 16.1 1.6 76.8 70.6 17.1 18.1 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 19.0 19.5 17.2 1.5 75.7 69.5 17.0 18.0 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 19.2 19.8 17.5 1.8 81.6 74.5 17.3 18.1 18.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 19.8 20.4 16.5 1.7 78.0 71.5 17.5 18.5 19.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 18.3 19.0 18.1 1.7 80.7 72.8 16.4 17.3 18.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 18.5 18.9 15.5 1.5 74.1 68.7 16.5 17.5 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 18.8 19.6 18.5 1.7 81.3 73.1 16.8 17.8 18.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 13.5 13.7 13.0 1.3 72.3 67.6 11.3 12.3 13.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 19.2 19.7 18.3 1.6 78.2 71.2 17.2 18.1 19.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 18.9 19.6 18.0 1.6 79.1 71.5 17.0 17.9 18.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 19.1 19.9 18.6 1.7 80.5 72.6 17.1 18.1 18.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 18.8 19.3 17.2 1.5 75.7 69.6 16.8 17.8 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 19.1 19.7 17.1 1.7 79.7 72.4 17.2 18.1 18.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 18.5 19.4 15.5 1.9 82.2 75.0 16.4 17.4 18.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 19.0 19.7 17.9 1.7 81.3 73.4 17.1 18.0 18.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 19.3 19.9 16.6 1.7 78.7 72.2 17.3 18.2 19.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 13.4 13.7 14.6 1.4 73.0 67.9 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 18.9 19.7 18.5 1.8 82.0 73.8 16.9 17.8 18.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------