***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.04.2017.-09.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 46 54 100 6.9 6.9 6.5 1.1 66.5 65.7 4.6 5.8 6.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 46 54 100 6.5 6.6 6.4 1.2 68.3 67.4 4.3 5.4 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 9.4 9.4 6.8 1.3 69.2 68.4 6.7 8.0 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 2.4 3.4 3.9 1.1 66.0 65.0 0.7 2.1 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 45 55 100 5.4 5.5 4.9 1.1 67.4 66.5 3.0 4.2 5.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 4.2 4.1 2.0 1.0 66.5 65.5 2.0 3.1 4.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 6.8 6.9 6.3 1.2 67.6 66.9 4.6 5.7 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 -0.3 -0.3 2.3 1.1 67.8 66.7 -3.0 -1.7 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 6.5 6.8 5.2 1.5 74.8 73.4 4.2 5.2 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 6.3 6.4 3.4 1.3 70.2 68.9 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 6.0 6.1 4.5 1.3 71.3 70.0 3.9 4.9 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 3.7 4.4 3.1 0.9 64.9 64.1 2.4 3.5 4.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 4.5 5.0 2.9 0.7 61.3 60.7 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 7.0 7.1 4.9 1.3 70.6 69.4 4.9 5.9 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 6.9 7.0 5.2 1.2 70.2 69.0 4.7 5.7 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 47 53 100 6.6 6.6 3.7 1.0 65.9 65.0 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 47 53 100 6.7 6.8 6.2 1.2 67.6 67.0 4.7 5.7 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 3.5 3.6 2.9 1.3 69.5 68.1 1.9 2.7 3.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 6.5 6.7 6.4 1.3 69.6 68.7 4.3 5.4 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 0.5 1.2 1.0 1.0 65.0 64.0 -0.6 0.3 1.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 6.4 6.6 6.2 1.2 69.7 68.7 4.0 5.2 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 6.0 6.1 6.4 1.3 68.9 68.2 4.0 5.0 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 6.0 6.2 6.4 1.4 72.4 71.2 3.9 4.9 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 6.4 6.5 5.0 1.3 71.3 70.0 4.3 5.2 6.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 5.5 6.3 5.6 0.9 63.5 62.6 4.1 5.3 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 4.3 4.8 2.2 0.7 61.0 60.3 3.2 4.2 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 90 10 100 6.5 7.3 5.9 0.8 61.7 61.1 4.5 6.2 7.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 3.8 4.7 4.3 1.1 66.0 65.1 2.4 3.5 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 45 55 100 3.8 4.0 2.1 1.3 69.2 67.9 1.3 2.6 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 7.2 7.3 6.6 1.2 68.8 67.9 4.7 5.9 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------