***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 16.2 17.5 16.4 -0.4 45.7 45.9 16.5 17.9 19.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 16.0 17.2 16.1 -0.5 44.7 45.0 16.2 17.7 19.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 16.0 17.4 16.7 -0.3 46.3 46.4 16.2 17.7 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.2 14.4 -0.3 46.7 47.1 9.2 10.5 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 18.3 17.4 15.0 -0.4 45.8 46.4 16.4 17.7 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.0 12.9 -0.6 43.9 44.5 15.2 16.4 17.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 15.6 16.9 16.1 -0.5 44.1 44.5 16.0 17.4 18.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.1 13.4 -0.4 46.1 46.5 4.1 5.4 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 17.9 16.9 15.3 -0.4 45.8 46.3 15.9 17.3 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.9 17.0 14.1 -0.4 45.9 46.4 16.0 17.3 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 15.9 17.1 14.7 -0.5 45.2 45.9 16.1 17.4 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 17.0 16.2 14.3 -0.4 45.4 46.0 15.2 16.5 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 18.0 17.0 13.5 -0.6 43.7 44.5 16.1 17.5 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 18.1 17.2 15.2 -0.3 46.5 46.4 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 18.2 17.6 15.2 -0.2 47.4 47.5 16.5 17.7 18.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 18.5 17.4 14.2 -0.5 44.4 45.2 16.5 17.9 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 15.4 16.6 16.0 -0.5 44.5 44.6 15.6 17.0 18.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 17.4 16.6 13.7 -0.4 46.2 46.5 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 15.7 17.1 16.4 -0.4 45.7 45.8 16.0 17.4 18.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.3 11.1 -0.3 46.5 46.7 10.2 11.6 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 15.8 17.1 16.1 -0.4 45.9 46.2 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 16.0 17.3 16.0 -0.4 45.4 45.3 16.2 17.7 19.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 18.4 17.5 16.6 -0.3 47.1 46.8 16.3 17.7 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 17.8 16.9 15.1 -0.4 46.2 46.4 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 16.0 17.3 14.9 -0.3 46.1 46.3 16.2 17.6 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 15.4 16.5 13.4 -0.4 46.0 46.1 15.6 16.8 17.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 15.7 17.0 15.7 -0.4 45.5 45.8 16.0 17.4 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 18.1 17.4 14.6 -0.3 46.2 46.8 16.5 17.7 18.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.3 12.8 -0.4 46.1 46.4 10.3 11.6 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 15.6 17.0 16.2 -0.4 45.0 45.3 16.0 17.4 18.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------