***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 5.5 6.6 7.1 -0.3 44.9 45.5 5.8 6.9 7.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.7 6.0 7.0 -0.2 47.1 46.8 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 6.7 8.0 7.2 -0.2 47.4 47.4 7.1 8.2 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 1.3 2.4 4.5 -0.3 44.8 45.1 1.7 2.7 3.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 3.7 5.0 4.7 -0.2 45.9 46.3 4.2 5.3 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 3.2 4.2 2.6 -0.3 45.7 46.0 3.6 4.4 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 4.9 6.1 6.9 -0.3 45.9 45.9 5.3 6.3 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -2.6 -1.5 2.6 -0.2 47.3 47.6 -2.4 -1.3 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.7 5.8 5.0 -0.2 47.0 47.2 5.0 6.0 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.7 5.9 3.4 -0.2 47.0 47.4 5.0 6.1 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 4.5 5.7 4.0 -0.2 46.5 46.8 4.9 5.9 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.1 4.2 3.3 -0.1 47.4 47.4 3.4 4.4 5.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 4.0 5.2 2.9 -0.3 45.6 45.8 4.5 5.5 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.1 6.3 4.9 -0.1 47.9 48.0 5.4 6.4 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 5.6 6.5 5.6 -0.3 44.9 45.0 5.8 6.7 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 4.8 6.1 3.5 -0.3 45.5 45.9 5.2 6.3 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 5.2 6.2 6.8 -0.2 46.0 45.7 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 2.9 4.0 2.8 -0.1 48.6 48.7 3.1 4.1 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 5.0 6.1 7.0 -0.1 47.9 47.5 5.2 6.2 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 0.2 1.2 0.7 -0.2 47.6 48.1 0.4 1.3 2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.5 5.8 6.4 -0.2 46.4 46.7 4.9 6.0 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.5 5.5 6.5 -0.2 46.5 46.0 4.8 5.8 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 6.4 5.8 6.8 -0.1 48.6 48.3 4.9 5.9 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.5 5.8 4.7 -0.1 48.9 48.8 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 4.6 5.8 5.7 -0.3 44.8 45.1 5.0 6.1 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.7 4.9 2.6 -0.2 45.7 45.7 4.1 5.1 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 5.1 6.3 6.5 -0.3 44.9 45.4 5.5 6.6 7.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.9 4.7 4.7 -0.3 44.5 44.9 4.1 5.0 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 1.7 2.9 2.2 0.0 49.6 49.5 1.8 2.9 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 5.2 6.3 7.1 -0.2 46.9 46.7 5.4 6.4 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------