***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 17.0 17.6 0.1 51.1 51.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 17.3 16.6 17.3 -0.1 48.3 49.4 15.4 16.8 18.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 17.4 16.9 17.8 0.1 50.9 51.4 15.4 16.8 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 7.8 9.6 16.0 0.1 51.3 51.1 8.1 9.5 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 15.2 17.1 16.3 0.1 51.8 51.5 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 13.9 15.4 14.5 -0.1 49.1 49.7 14.2 15.5 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 17.0 16.4 17.2 -0.2 47.8 49.0 15.2 16.5 17.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 2.9 4.4 14.7 -0.1 48.7 49.5 3.2 4.5 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 14.8 16.6 16.8 0.1 51.9 51.7 15.0 16.4 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 14.9 16.5 15.6 0.0 49.7 50.2 15.1 16.5 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 15.0 16.7 16.0 0.1 51.2 51.1 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 14.1 15.7 15.6 0.0 49.5 50.0 14.3 15.7 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 14.8 16.5 15.2 -0.1 48.8 49.5 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 15.1 16.4 16.3 -0.3 46.6 48.3 15.3 16.7 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 15.5 17.1 16.1 0.1 51.0 50.9 15.8 17.0 18.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 15.1 16.9 15.6 0.0 50.3 50.4 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.7 15.9 16.9 -0.3 46.0 47.7 14.9 16.2 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 14.4 15.9 14.9 -0.2 47.8 49.1 14.6 16.0 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.4 17.5 -0.1 48.8 49.9 15.2 16.5 17.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 9.2 10.5 12.5 -0.3 46.5 48.2 9.4 10.8 12.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 14.9 16.8 17.4 0.2 52.1 51.9 15.3 16.7 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 17.3 16.4 17.0 -0.3 45.7 47.7 15.5 16.7 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 17.3 16.7 17.5 -0.1 48.7 49.9 15.4 16.8 18.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 14.8 16.3 16.4 -0.1 48.6 49.8 15.0 16.4 17.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 15.2 16.7 16.1 0.0 49.7 50.1 15.4 16.8 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 16.5 15.9 14.8 -0.1 49.1 49.8 14.7 16.0 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.5 16.8 -0.1 49.0 49.6 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 15.3 17.0 16.2 0.1 51.6 51.3 15.7 16.9 18.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.0 10.4 13.8 -0.3 46.8 48.5 9.3 10.7 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.5 17.5 0.0 49.3 50.2 15.2 16.6 17.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------