***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2020.-12.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 4.3 7.0 7.8 55.9 41.8 32.4 5.1 8.9 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 3.9 7.1 7.8 62.9 46.2 36.0 4.3 8.1 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 4.6 7.4 8.6 60.7 44.1 35.1 5.1 8.7 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 5.1 9.4 9.8 61.4 46.0 34.6 5.9 10.6 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 5.1 9.0 10.0 65.8 47.3 36.7 5.5 9.9 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 4.2 5.6 10.1 61.8 42.2 36.5 3.8 7.5 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.9 4.7 7.0 58.3 43.5 34.3 2.9 6.1 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 8.2 12.1 9.6 59.4 43.1 36.2 8.7 14.7 22.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 4.3 7.6 9.6 62.5 45.1 35.4 5.0 8.9 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 7.3 11.3 10.5 63.6 45.6 37.6 7.9 12.7 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 4.8 7.8 9.9 63.7 45.7 37.3 4.8 9.0 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 3.9 6.0 8.6 57.1 42.4 35.1 4.0 8.1 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 4.1 6.2 9.3 55.7 40.5 33.6 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 5.2 10.7 12.4 70.9 49.4 38.3 5.9 10.9 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 2.4 4.4 8.7 54.8 43.0 31.8 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 4.8 7.4 9.4 59.7 43.6 35.7 5.1 8.9 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 3.3 6.2 7.8 65.6 47.4 36.3 3.6 6.7 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 5.9 9.0 10.6 61.2 42.7 35.7 6.9 10.6 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 5.0 9.3 8.3 64.5 46.9 36.1 5.8 10.4 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 4.7 7.1 11.1 59.6 40.1 34.3 5.5 9.6 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 3.9 6.6 8.7 59.6 44.2 34.3 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 4.4 8.3 8.6 68.4 48.7 36.4 4.8 8.6 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 4.5 8.5 9.5 68.0 47.8 36.7 5.2 9.1 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 5.1 8.5 10.7 64.1 45.4 36.4 5.9 9.6 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 4.9 7.8 10.0 61.6 43.8 34.0 5.6 9.4 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 4.2 5.9 9.2 56.2 40.5 33.9 4.4 8.3 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 4.0 7.0 8.9 58.8 42.6 33.4 4.7 9.0 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 4.3 7.4 9.5 60.4 45.6 34.9 4.7 8.5 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 8.1 12.5 11.5 65.6 44.4 37.3 9.3 14.4 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 3.3 5.6 7.7 59.6 43.8 34.8 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------