***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2020.-26.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 5.2 5.7 6.1 -0.4 41.1 43.2 5.4 6.1 6.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.8 5.2 5.7 -0.5 38.3 40.9 5.0 5.7 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 7.0 7.4 6.2 -0.4 40.1 42.5 7.1 7.9 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 1.2 1.9 3.6 -0.2 44.1 45.4 1.4 2.2 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.8 4.3 4.1 -0.3 41.4 43.9 3.9 4.7 5.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.1 3.6 2.0 -0.1 46.3 47.9 3.1 3.8 4.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 5.0 5.4 5.7 -0.5 37.7 40.7 5.2 5.9 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -1.2 -2.0 1.9 -0.3 41.5 45.1 -2.4 -1.6 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.2 4.2 -0.3 41.9 44.5 4.8 5.5 6.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.8 5.2 2.6 -0.4 40.8 44.3 4.9 5.5 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.0 3.6 -0.3 41.8 44.7 4.6 5.3 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.6 2.8 -0.3 41.6 44.7 3.2 3.9 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.1 4.5 2.5 -0.3 41.5 44.2 4.2 4.8 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 5.2 5.6 3.9 -0.4 39.0 42.5 5.4 6.0 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.3 6.1 5.0 0.0 48.8 49.0 5.5 6.1 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.2 5.6 3.1 -0.3 43.0 45.3 5.2 5.9 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 5.2 5.5 5.5 -0.5 36.7 39.6 5.4 6.0 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 2.8 3.2 2.0 -0.3 42.5 45.5 2.9 3.4 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.8 5.2 5.7 -0.4 38.8 41.3 5.0 5.7 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 1.1 0.6 0.2 -0.3 44.1 47.1 0.2 0.8 1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.7 5.1 5.5 -0.3 41.3 43.6 4.8 5.5 6.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.5 4.8 5.4 -0.5 37.4 40.1 4.6 5.3 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.5 5.0 5.6 -0.4 40.0 42.4 4.7 5.4 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.6 5.1 4.0 -0.3 41.6 44.5 4.8 5.4 6.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.8 5.3 5.1 -0.4 41.4 43.5 4.9 5.7 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.4 2.1 -0.3 41.2 43.9 4.0 4.7 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 5.2 5.7 5.6 -0.4 40.7 43.0 5.3 6.2 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.5 4.1 4.0 -0.2 46.2 47.1 3.6 4.2 4.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 1.7 2.2 1.4 -0.3 42.2 45.7 1.8 2.6 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 5.1 5.6 5.9 -0.4 39.4 41.8 5.3 6.1 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------