***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.04.2021.-11.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9.4 12.6 17.3 114.2 67.7 58.5 4.2 7.5 12.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.5 9.8 14.2 103.4 63.5 54.8 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.8 10.8 15.6 104.4 63.8 54.8 4.7 7.6 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.7 16.2 18.2 108.8 65.7 55.5 6.9 11.0 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.3 13.4 16.4 102.1 62.7 52.7 4.9 9.1 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.6 8.5 16.7 94.8 58.7 49.1 3.3 6.4 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.8 9.4 14.3 105.3 64.4 56.0 2.9 5.8 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.3 16.0 16.9 100.0 61.5 51.9 5.9 11.2 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.4 11.1 16.1 99.7 61.7 52.1 4.3 7.8 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.7 14.3 17.3 100.1 61.6 52.2 5.4 10.1 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.1 10.5 16.3 99.8 61.1 51.2 4.0 7.6 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.3 10.1 15.9 102.1 62.5 51.5 3.1 6.4 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.7 9.0 16.8 96.2 59.5 48.3 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.8 13.5 18.3 97.9 60.8 51.0 5.7 9.9 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.2 9.6 17.7 113.6 67.8 57.2 3.0 5.5 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 4.0 9.7 16.6 100.9 62.0 50.8 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 7.5 9.4 14.1 107.1 65.2 55.9 2.9 5.7 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.6 10.0 17.0 92.8 57.7 49.1 4.5 8.0 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.0 12.4 14.4 101.9 62.9 53.8 4.8 8.5 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.9 8.5 17.6 88.4 54.7 47.2 3.6 7.2 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.0 11.5 16.4 105.2 64.0 54.8 4.8 8.0 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.8 12.5 15.2 109.2 66.1 56.0 4.1 7.7 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.9 11.1 14.9 100.0 62.2 52.4 4.9 8.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 5.0 10.3 16.4 94.7 58.8 49.7 5.2 8.3 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.1 13.0 20.1 116.2 68.0 58.1 5.0 8.2 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.9 7.6 15.7 93.2 58.3 47.8 2.5 5.6 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.1 13.8 19.3 118.5 69.0 59.2 4.4 7.9 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.6 11.3 17.0 106.2 64.9 53.9 4.3 7.4 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.1 14.0 17.2 90.5 56.0 48.0 7.0 11.9 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.7 8.8 14.8 104.3 63.8 54.9 2.9 5.7 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------