***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.04.2016.-17.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 14.8 19.3 16.8 115.0 68.0 57.2 7.0 12.0 18.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 12.0 16.0 14.9 120.9 69.9 56.0 5.8 9.6 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 16.3 19.5 15.4 107.4 65.5 54.9 8.3 13.3 19.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 22.0 28.6 19.8 119.5 69.4 57.9 11.7 18.3 26.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 18.1 21.6 18.0 110.5 66.3 56.3 9.7 15.1 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 15.4 18.7 21.0 109.9 65.6 57.9 8.0 12.8 18.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 6.1 18.4 15.9 130.0 72.6 58.1 5.7 9.8 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 27.1 30.9 19.0 108.6 64.6 55.5 15.6 22.9 31.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 16.0 18.4 17.9 105.1 64.0 54.3 7.6 12.7 19.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 18.1 20.7 19.7 106.6 64.1 55.0 9.3 14.7 21.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 16.6 20.1 17.3 110.4 66.2 56.1 8.0 13.3 20.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 17.0 20.4 17.7 112.1 66.2 56.6 8.8 14.0 20.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 23.9 23.6 21.3 120.9 69.6 60.4 9.1 14.7 21.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 20.4 24.2 19.4 111.2 66.1 53.3 11.2 17.0 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 15.9 21.5 19.3 119.9 69.9 57.8 7.3 12.6 19.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 23.6 23.3 19.5 119.6 69.3 58.9 8.8 14.3 21.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 12.3 16.8 14.7 125.2 71.4 56.8 5.6 9.6 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 16.8 19.2 20.6 106.2 63.5 54.5 8.8 13.9 20.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 13.0 17.2 14.9 117.7 68.9 55.6 6.1 10.4 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 15.1 17.1 21.5 106.8 63.3 54.6 7.4 12.2 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 15.5 18.3 16.4 107.7 65.4 55.0 7.8 12.6 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.7 17.5 15.1 120.3 69.8 55.8 5.1 9.5 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 14.8 17.7 14.9 110.6 66.6 54.0 8.1 12.3 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 18.3 21.2 18.2 105.8 64.1 54.3 8.9 14.9 22.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 17.7 23.0 18.9 114.7 67.8 57.0 8.2 14.0 21.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 16.5 19.0 18.7 110.0 65.1 56.6 9.0 13.7 19.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 17.4 23.4 18.4 118.7 69.2 58.2 8.2 14.0 21.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 15.7 21.6 19.9 121.6 70.2 58.7 7.5 12.6 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 23.4 25.9 20.8 105.4 62.8 53.5 12.3 19.2 28.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.4 15.0 15.6 119.2 69.3 55.9 5.5 9.1 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------