***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 69.0 164.1 130.6 245.6 98.7 92.5 27.1 39.9 54.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 60.7 142.2 122.1 258.2 98.9 93.2 25.2 36.1 49.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 75.2 162.0 126.2 242.4 98.5 92.1 33.1 46.1 61.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 88.7 170.9 170.7 280.9 99.5 95.9 51.0 63.0 75.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 78.6 163.3 144.1 251.1 98.9 94.3 37.1 49.9 64.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 69.3 143.0 159.3 243.9 99.5 95.7 37.6 47.7 58.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 60.5 152.4 115.9 247.9 98.7 92.3 21.2 32.6 46.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 105.3 183.3 156.1 244.1 99.3 95.3 67.1 79.8 93.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 3 97 100 72.3 156.5 142.8 244.4 98.8 94.1 32.3 44.7 58.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 81.6 160.8 155.4 239.2 99.0 94.5 42.9 55.3 69.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 74.2 154.5 147.5 254.4 99.3 95.1 38.2 49.7 62.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 71.9 144.1 147.6 253.3 99.4 95.8 39.8 50.2 61.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 79.8 165.7 159.2 249.6 99.3 95.2 42.3 54.4 67.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 6 94 100 84.4 151.4 153.3 228.4 98.2 92.2 45.4 58.3 72.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 75.5 180.4 170.8 300.3 99.4 96.3 33.5 46.1 60.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 75.0 167.9 153.8 257.2 99.3 95.0 36.4 48.6 62.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 59.6 132.3 106.2 230.2 97.6 88.2 22.1 33.3 47.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 70.2 138.3 161.2 235.3 99.1 93.9 38.1 48.5 60.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 69.0 183.9 127.5 260.8 98.9 93.6 24.2 37.6 53.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 71.7 151.7 181.5 245.6 99.5 94.6 38.4 49.3 60.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 70.1 162.8 136.7 249.2 98.8 93.1 29.5 42.1 56.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 60.9 124.6 117.0 237.9 97.6 88.8 25.9 37.1 49.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 65.6 134.5 131.8 251.8 98.7 93.0 31.6 42.3 54.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 78.2 153.3 143.8 230.5 98.4 91.9 39.2 51.9 66.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 74.4 161.5 150.2 252.0 98.9 93.0 35.1 47.5 61.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 68.7 146.1 155.0 252.4 99.5 95.9 36.6 46.8 58.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 72.9 173.0 138.5 246.3 98.8 92.5 29.6 42.8 58.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 71.2 158.7 171.4 287.5 99.5 96.3 35.7 46.6 58.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 96.1 174.5 165.7 235.3 99.2 93.8 57.9 70.6 84.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 58.1 145.8 124.8 256.9 98.9 93.8 21.6 32.5 45.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------