***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.6 14.3 13.2 -0.5 43.4 45.0 13.3 15.0 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.8 14.5 13.1 -0.6 41.1 43.2 13.8 15.3 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 16.2 15.5 13.8 -0.1 48.0 48.9 14.1 15.6 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.1 6.0 9.2 -1.2 35.1 38.3 5.8 7.5 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 16.1 15.4 12.0 -0.2 47.5 48.5 13.9 15.6 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 15.2 14.9 10.4 0.2 53.3 53.6 13.0 14.6 16.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.6 14.1 12.8 -0.7 39.2 41.5 13.6 15.0 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 4.1 3.3 9.9 -0.3 46.1 47.1 2.1 3.6 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 16.0 15.5 13.2 0.1 50.9 51.4 13.7 15.4 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 16.1 15.4 11.3 -0.1 49.2 49.7 13.8 15.5 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 16.0 15.5 12.5 0.0 50.1 50.4 13.8 15.5 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 15.3 14.6 11.0 -0.1 48.9 49.5 13.0 14.7 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 16.4 15.9 12.1 0.1 50.8 51.2 14.1 15.8 17.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 16.4 15.8 13.2 0.0 49.8 50.4 14.2 15.8 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 15.6 13.3 11.2 -1.5 31.5 35.1 13.5 15.0 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 16.5 15.8 11.7 -0.2 47.8 48.5 14.3 16.0 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 14.8 13.5 12.5 -0.7 39.7 41.9 13.0 14.3 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 15.7 14.9 10.5 -0.2 47.3 48.1 13.4 15.1 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.8 14.7 13.3 -0.4 44.0 45.5 13.7 15.3 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 10.6 9.1 7.7 -0.7 40.1 41.8 8.4 10.0 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 16.1 15.4 13.8 -0.1 49.0 49.8 13.9 15.5 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.8 14.6 12.9 -0.5 42.9 44.5 13.7 15.2 16.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 16.2 15.6 13.7 -0.1 48.3 49.0 14.2 15.7 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 16.2 15.6 13.0 0.0 50.0 50.5 14.0 15.6 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.8 14.6 12.1 -0.6 42.2 44.2 13.7 15.2 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 15.7 15.3 10.3 0.0 50.6 51.2 13.7 15.2 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.0 14.7 12.6 -0.6 41.3 43.2 13.9 15.4 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 15.8 13.9 10.3 -1.1 36.3 39.2 13.5 15.2 16.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 10.6 9.6 9.7 -0.3 45.3 46.4 8.3 10.0 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 15.7 14.5 13.2 -0.5 42.2 44.0 13.7 15.2 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------