***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.04.2018.-08.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 7.0 7.8 7.5 2.1 80.4 71.0 4.6 5.7 6.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 6.5 6.6 6.5 1.4 72.2 65.6 4.4 5.3 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 9.3 9.9 7.2 1.8 78.4 69.7 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 3.5 4.4 4.7 2.1 80.5 71.5 0.8 2.0 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 5.6 6.5 5.4 2.2 81.3 73.0 2.8 4.0 5.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 4.4 5.4 3.1 2.3 84.3 76.4 1.9 2.9 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 6.8 7.1 6.7 1.6 74.5 66.5 4.6 5.6 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 -0.3 0.3 2.6 1.7 77.2 71.3 -2.9 -1.7 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 6.3 6.7 5.0 1.6 75.4 69.4 4.1 5.1 6.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 6.3 6.7 3.4 1.7 75.9 70.0 4.1 5.1 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 6.0 6.6 4.5 1.8 79.3 73.1 3.7 4.8 5.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 4.9 5.7 3.9 2.1 82.5 75.1 2.3 3.4 4.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 5.6 6.5 3.9 2.2 84.3 76.7 3.1 4.1 5.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 6.8 7.1 4.7 1.4 73.3 66.6 4.9 5.8 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 6.8 7.3 5.4 1.7 76.9 69.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 6.9 7.8 4.3 2.1 83.2 75.3 4.4 5.5 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 6.7 6.8 6.3 1.3 71.0 64.8 4.7 5.6 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 3.5 4.0 3.1 1.9 78.3 70.7 1.8 2.6 3.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 6.6 6.7 6.4 1.3 71.7 65.7 4.3 5.3 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 1.5 2.1 1.5 2.2 80.1 72.9 -0.7 0.3 1.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 6.5 7.2 6.5 1.9 78.8 70.6 3.9 5.1 6.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 6.0 5.9 6.1 1.1 68.9 63.7 4.0 4.9 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 6.0 6.0 6.2 1.3 71.4 65.7 3.9 4.8 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 6.2 6.5 4.7 1.5 74.5 67.9 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 6.6 7.5 6.7 2.3 81.9 72.4 4.0 5.2 6.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 5.5 6.7 3.8 2.6 88.0 78.9 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 7.9 9.2 7.3 2.4 82.2 72.3 4.6 6.0 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 4.9 5.7 4.9 2.0 80.3 71.7 2.1 3.3 4.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 3.8 4.3 2.2 1.8 75.8 69.9 1.5 2.6 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 7.2 7.5 6.9 1.6 75.1 67.2 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------