***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2013.-21.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 12.3 13.8 109.0 66.1 53.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.6 10.9 13.3 101.9 63.3 53.5 5.0 8.0 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 15.0 17.8 13.9 109.8 66.2 55.5 8.1 12.5 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.9 20.1 15.6 105.1 64.5 52.9 11.0 15.5 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 15.1 17.9 15.6 107.0 64.8 53.7 8.2 12.7 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 18.9 17.8 20.9 116.0 68.1 58.3 7.9 12.0 17.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.4 10.7 13.0 100.5 62.5 52.5 3.9 7.2 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 26.6 30.0 16.5 107.2 64.7 55.0 16.5 23.2 30.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.0 18.3 15.3 110.5 66.1 55.6 7.5 12.3 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 17.3 20.6 16.8 109.3 65.5 56.4 9.2 14.4 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.9 17.3 14.9 105.5 64.4 53.6 7.0 11.8 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 15.3 17.4 14.5 106.8 64.9 53.0 9.6 13.3 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 17.0 20.2 17.5 111.0 66.5 55.1 9.8 14.4 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.4 18.9 16.5 106.6 64.3 55.3 8.6 13.6 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 12.5 15.1 13.8 104.9 65.1 53.2 5.7 9.9 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.8 18.5 16.1 107.5 65.1 53.7 7.6 12.7 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.4 10.5 12.6 97.7 61.9 51.3 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 17.8 21.3 18.4 112.4 66.5 57.9 10.1 15.1 21.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 10.0 11.6 13.6 104.3 64.3 54.4 4.9 8.1 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 15.2 17.8 20.3 109.5 65.3 57.1 9.1 13.2 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 13.9 17.0 14.2 110.9 66.5 54.6 7.3 11.5 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.7 10.4 12.5 94.4 60.8 50.7 4.5 7.8 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.4 13.4 14.2 107.5 65.4 55.4 5.6 9.2 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 17.6 21.1 16.2 109.4 65.6 56.6 9.1 14.5 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 14.5 17.9 15.9 108.7 65.5 53.3 6.2 11.3 18.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 12.0 15.1 16.5 110.7 66.4 55.6 5.5 9.6 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 13.8 16.9 15.2 108.5 65.5 53.5 5.7 10.5 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.9 15.0 15.1 104.8 64.7 53.3 6.4 10.4 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.3 25.8 18.7 111.1 65.9 57.2 13.4 19.2 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 9.0 10.7 13.5 105.5 64.6 54.6 4.2 7.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------