***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2013.-21.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 9999.0 3.2 3.7 -1.9 9.7 19.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 84 16 0 100 3.7 2.4 3.2 -2.2 5.3 15.8 4.3 5.1 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 80 20 0 100 5.9 4.9 3.4 -1.9 8.2 18.2 6.6 7.3 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 85 15 0 100 -0.1 -1.4 1.4 -2.1 5.8 14.4 0.7 1.5 2.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 80 20 0 100 2.9 1.9 1.7 -1.9 8.1 17.9 3.4 4.2 4.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 2.1 1.8 0.4 -1.3 17.1 25.8 2.6 3.3 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 83 17 0 100 4.0 2.8 3.2 -2.2 5.9 16.7 4.6 5.3 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 -3.5 -3.8 0.6 -1.3 17.7 26.3 -2.9 -2.1 -1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 3.9 3.2 2.3 -1.8 9.8 19.9 4.4 5.0 5.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 3.9 3.5 1.0 -1.6 13.2 22.8 4.4 5.1 5.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 3.7 3.0 1.4 -1.7 10.4 20.2 4.2 4.8 5.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 2.2 1.8 1.3 -1.4 15.7 24.7 2.7 3.4 4.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 3.2 2.9 1.0 -1.3 16.7 25.8 3.7 4.3 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 83 17 0 100 4.4 3.4 2.0 -2.1 6.2 15.8 4.9 5.5 6.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 86 14 0 100 4.4 3.6 2.0 -2.1 6.3 14.0 4.9 5.5 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 4.2 3.5 1.2 -1.6 11.7 21.4 4.7 5.4 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 86 14 0 100 4.2 2.9 2.9 -2.4 3.9 14.3 4.7 5.4 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 1.9 1.5 0.4 -1.6 14.2 24.0 2.3 2.9 3.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 84 16 0 100 3.7 2.5 3.2 -2.2 5.6 15.9 4.4 5.1 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 -0.6 -0.6 -0.9 -1.1 25.5 32.6 -0.3 0.3 0.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 3.7 2.8 3.1 -1.9 8.9 18.9 4.3 5.0 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 87 13 0 100 3.4 2.1 2.9 -2.4 3.5 13.2 4.0 4.6 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 83 17 0 100 3.4 2.3 3.1 -2.1 6.4 16.3 4.0 4.7 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 3.7 2.9 1.9 -1.9 8.8 18.7 4.2 4.8 5.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 82 18 0 100 3.8 2.8 2.3 -2.0 7.5 17.5 4.4 5.1 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 3.1 3.1 1.3 -1.0 23.2 30.0 3.5 4.2 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 82 18 0 100 4.1 3.1 3.1 -1.9 9.1 19.3 4.8 5.6 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 85 15 0 100 2.6 1.6 1.7 -2.0 6.5 14.5 3.1 3.7 4.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 0.7 0.3 -0.1 -1.5 17.0 26.3 1.2 2.0 2.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 83 17 0 100 4.1 3.0 3.4 -2.1 6.7 17.2 4.8 5.5 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------