***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 4.8 5.4 -1.0 33.3 36.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 3.9 4.3 5.1 -1.1 32.2 36.4 4.3 5.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 5.9 6.5 5.2 -0.9 35.3 38.4 6.3 7.4 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 -0.3 0.3 3.3 -0.9 33.9 37.2 0.2 1.6 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.3 3.8 3.3 -0.8 35.9 38.9 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 2.4 2.9 1.5 -0.9 35.1 38.3 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 4.2 4.5 5.0 -1.1 31.6 36.0 4.6 5.7 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -3.3 -2.8 1.8 -0.7 37.8 40.9 -3.1 -1.9 -0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.0 4.5 3.8 -0.8 36.1 39.2 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.2 4.6 2.5 -0.8 37.0 40.3 4.4 5.4 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.0 4.5 2.9 -0.7 37.0 40.0 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.7 3.2 2.6 -0.7 37.7 40.7 2.9 4.0 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.4 4.1 2.1 -0.8 36.7 40.0 3.8 4.9 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.8 5.2 3.9 -0.9 35.9 38.9 5.0 5.9 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 4.9 5.1 3.7 -1.0 31.7 35.5 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 4.4 5.0 2.5 -0.8 36.2 39.4 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 4.4 4.6 4.8 -1.2 30.3 35.1 4.8 5.7 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 2.3 2.8 1.9 -0.8 37.7 41.1 2.5 3.4 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 3.9 4.4 5.1 -1.0 33.2 37.1 4.4 5.4 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 1.2 0.2 0.2 -0.7 39.1 42.4 -0.2 0.8 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.0 4.5 4.7 -0.9 35.6 38.6 4.3 5.5 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 3.9 4.1 4.9 -1.1 31.2 35.7 4.2 5.1 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 3.7 4.2 4.9 -0.9 34.4 37.8 4.1 5.1 6.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.1 4.5 3.6 -0.8 36.9 39.9 4.3 5.2 6.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 4.1 4.5 4.0 -1.0 33.4 37.0 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.5 3.9 2.3 -0.7 36.5 39.7 3.7 4.7 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 4.1 4.6 4.7 -1.1 32.6 36.5 4.6 6.0 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.9 3.3 3.4 -1.0 33.2 36.6 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.6 1.4 1.3 -0.7 38.5 41.8 1.0 2.1 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 4.3 4.8 5.2 -1.0 33.1 36.9 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------