***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 4.6 4.3 -0.7 37.8 45.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.2 4.5 4.0 -0.9 35.0 44.3 4.3 5.3 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 6.5 6.8 4.0 -0.9 34.7 44.6 6.7 7.8 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 0.0 0.0 1.5 -1.3 25.4 38.9 0.6 1.8 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 2.1 2.3 1.8 -1.1 28.6 41.4 2.7 3.9 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 1.3 1.6 0.2 -1.0 30.4 42.1 1.8 2.9 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.3 4.7 4.0 -0.8 36.5 45.0 4.5 5.4 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -3.4 -2.8 0.8 -0.8 35.4 47.0 -3.0 -1.9 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.6 3.9 2.5 -1.0 31.5 43.4 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 3.7 4.1 1.3 -0.9 33.4 45.4 4.1 5.1 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 3.3 3.5 1.5 -1.1 29.5 42.7 3.7 4.7 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 1.8 2.2 1.4 -0.9 32.6 45.7 2.2 3.3 4.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 2.5 2.9 0.8 -1.0 31.3 44.6 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 4.5 4.6 2.5 -1.2 29.6 42.9 4.8 5.7 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 3.8 3.6 1.9 -1.4 24.4 37.5 4.2 5.3 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 3.8 4.0 1.1 -1.1 28.5 42.1 4.3 5.4 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.3 4.7 3.8 -1.0 34.0 42.9 4.6 5.5 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 1.6 1.9 0.8 -0.9 34.6 46.8 1.8 2.6 3.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.0 4.3 3.9 -0.9 33.8 43.8 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 -0.9 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 42.5 50.7 -0.7 0.2 1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.4 3.8 3.5 -0.9 33.7 44.0 3.8 4.9 6.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.6 3.9 3.8 -1.0 32.6 41.7 3.9 4.8 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.7 3.8 3.7 -1.0 32.0 43.2 3.9 4.8 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.8 4.0 2.3 -1.0 31.6 44.4 4.1 5.0 6.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 3.6 3.9 2.6 -1.1 31.5 42.2 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.7 3.2 1.2 -0.7 35.5 45.7 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.1 4.8 3.6 -0.8 36.4 44.8 4.5 5.9 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 1.5 1.3 1.6 -1.4 24.6 38.2 2.0 3.2 4.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 1.2 1.6 0.3 -0.8 36.3 47.6 1.4 2.4 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.5 4.8 4.1 -0.8 35.9 45.0 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------