***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2020.-19.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 46.4 46.6 56.7 102.6 58.4 51.0 32.8 41.7 51.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 24.2 37.8 48.8 98.2 55.1 48.2 25.1 34.6 45.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 52.3 51.3 54.8 100.2 56.3 49.0 37.7 47.3 57.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 65.1 69.7 72.0 110.9 64.8 56.4 50.6 60.2 70.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 56.8 57.0 63.1 103.0 58.5 53.0 44.3 52.6 61.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 49.6 49.6 66.7 101.0 56.5 52.5 36.5 45.8 55.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 22.6 35.9 47.9 97.1 54.3 47.8 23.4 33.1 44.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 83.2 80.8 64.6 98.9 54.4 51.8 63.8 77.1 91.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 51.1 51.2 62.6 102.0 57.7 52.4 38.0 46.8 56.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 59.9 57.8 66.4 98.9 54.4 51.3 43.9 54.8 66.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 55.4 53.7 60.0 99.3 55.1 51.5 39.7 50.4 61.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 53.5 51.3 58.3 98.5 54.4 51.1 38.6 48.6 59.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 58.2 54.4 63.5 96.9 52.7 49.6 41.7 52.6 64.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 45.6 59.5 68.6 96.7 52.5 47.2 46.3 57.9 70.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 61.0 59.3 71.2 115.4 67.6 58.3 37.3 47.2 58.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 53.2 50.5 60.6 97.6 53.5 50.0 37.5 48.2 59.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 23.2 36.4 46.9 98.1 55.4 47.9 23.4 33.0 43.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 49.3 46.6 68.1 97.6 53.0 50.1 35.9 45.0 54.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 28.1 43.0 50.8 98.7 55.3 48.2 29.3 39.3 50.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 52.2 50.5 73.2 98.9 54.2 51.6 38.7 48.0 58.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 48.7 49.1 59.5 102.2 58.1 51.5 33.1 43.6 55.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 24.2 39.9 50.6 99.5 56.2 48.4 25.1 35.6 47.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 32.0 44.8 54.0 98.3 54.7 47.4 33.5 42.1 51.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 39.2 52.0 63.0 96.1 52.0 47.7 40.2 50.7 62.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 40.3 55.7 66.5 104.6 60.0 52.4 41.0 50.1 59.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 48.8 48.7 63.8 101.5 57.1 52.1 35.2 44.5 54.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 50.4 49.7 60.3 101.6 57.6 50.8 32.8 44.1 56.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 50.5 54.2 69.1 109.9 63.7 56.4 37.0 45.9 55.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 74.4 72.1 70.1 99.2 54.5 51.6 56.5 68.7 81.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 23.2 36.0 50.4 98.4 55.1 48.1 23.6 32.9 43.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------