***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2020.-05.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.0 4.7 10.8 81.3 54.4 44.2 1.9 4.0 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.6 5.4 9.0 76.7 52.3 42.7 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.3 6.3 10.5 78.4 52.0 42.3 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.5 10.8 13.4 87.1 56.6 47.5 4.9 8.9 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 7.5 6.6 12.7 85.2 54.6 47.0 2.7 5.6 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.6 6.9 14.4 86.8 54.7 47.4 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.2 4.9 9.5 81.4 54.9 44.8 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 11.4 10.1 13.7 88.8 56.6 47.7 3.9 8.1 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.1 12.6 85.1 54.3 46.3 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.3 6.9 13.4 86.5 55.3 46.6 2.9 5.8 9.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.7 4.9 12.1 80.4 51.2 43.4 2.2 4.6 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.2 6.7 12.7 86.3 55.0 46.3 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.7 6.4 12.9 76.8 49.8 42.4 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 3.5 6.5 12.9 79.5 52.4 43.9 3.2 6.0 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.4 10.8 12.9 85.4 57.5 47.5 4.3 8.5 14.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.0 5.8 13.0 82.2 52.6 45.5 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.4 4.8 8.8 77.4 53.3 43.8 2.2 4.3 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 2.4 5.3 14.1 89.7 56.8 47.8 2.2 4.3 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.3 4.7 9.2 75.5 51.6 42.3 2.3 4.4 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.0 15.3 89.0 55.7 46.8 4.0 6.8 10.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.6 11.8 83.0 54.0 45.2 2.3 4.8 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.6 5.0 9.3 78.4 53.5 44.2 2.3 4.4 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.9 5.4 9.7 74.4 51.2 42.5 2.8 5.3 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.1 6.6 12.9 84.3 54.2 45.1 3.0 5.7 9.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.6 7.2 13.4 86.3 55.5 45.5 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 7.8 7.4 14.7 89.1 56.9 48.4 3.0 5.9 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.5 5.5 12.3 85.6 55.9 45.5 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.0 13.5 88.2 57.5 48.7 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 5.1 11.0 14.7 91.0 56.9 47.8 4.9 8.9 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.6 5.1 9.5 78.1 52.7 43.1 2.5 4.6 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------