***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2020.-19.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 14.9 15.5 14.0 -0.6 39.6 40.7 15.1 16.1 17.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 15.1 15.7 13.9 -0.5 40.8 41.8 15.3 16.1 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 15.3 15.8 14.1 -0.7 37.7 39.3 15.5 16.4 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 7.6 7.8 11.0 -1.0 33.8 35.9 7.8 8.9 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 15.3 15.8 12.2 -0.9 34.6 36.6 15.7 16.7 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 16.0 14.6 10.2 -1.0 34.9 37.1 14.5 15.6 16.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 14.9 15.6 13.9 -0.5 41.2 42.2 15.1 16.0 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 3.1 3.6 10.6 -0.9 36.3 38.0 3.4 4.4 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 15.1 15.5 12.8 -0.9 34.9 36.9 15.4 16.4 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 15.1 15.6 11.4 -0.9 35.9 37.7 15.4 16.4 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 15.1 15.5 12.2 -1.0 34.3 36.3 15.5 16.5 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 14.2 14.7 11.6 -0.9 35.7 37.4 14.6 15.6 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 15.3 15.8 11.5 -0.8 37.1 38.6 15.5 16.6 17.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 15.3 15.7 12.8 -0.8 36.4 38.5 15.5 16.4 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 15.2 15.5 12.5 -0.9 34.2 36.4 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 15.5 16.0 11.7 -0.9 35.5 37.2 15.8 16.9 17.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 14.4 14.9 13.7 -0.5 41.3 42.4 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 14.8 15.2 11.0 -0.8 37.6 39.2 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.4 15.6 14.1 -0.5 40.3 41.5 15.2 16.1 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 11.1 10.4 8.8 -0.4 44.1 44.5 9.7 10.7 11.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 15.2 15.6 13.6 -0.9 35.4 37.3 15.5 16.5 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 16.4 15.7 13.8 -0.5 41.2 42.4 15.2 16.1 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.7 15.8 14.1 -0.6 39.1 40.6 15.5 16.4 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 15.1 15.5 12.7 -0.8 36.2 38.1 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 15.3 15.7 12.5 -0.7 37.9 39.4 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 14.7 15.2 10.8 -0.7 38.5 39.7 14.8 15.9 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 16.7 15.8 13.4 -0.5 40.7 41.6 15.4 16.3 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 15.2 15.5 11.6 -1.0 33.4 35.5 15.5 16.4 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.1 10.3 -0.6 40.0 41.1 9.7 10.7 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 15.0 15.5 14.0 -0.5 40.5 41.5 15.1 16.0 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------